Piece of Cake to Score Goals in the Black Forest

Mainz and Freiburg shared six goals the last time they met.

Each of the last three German Bundesliga meetings between Freiburg and Mainz has gone over two and a half goals and one cannot believe the odds that some bookmakers are quoting about that eventuality occurring again on Saturday.

Freiburg is second only to Bremen in the hearts of German Bundesliga punters who like to bet on over two and a half goals. Nineteen of Freiburg’s 27 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including nine of its 13 home games. It says a lot about Freiburg’s attack and propensity to fight back that it is seventh on the German Bundesliga ladder in spite of its defence ranking 16th.

Mainz is in big German Bundesliga relegation trouble because Freiburg is the only team on the top half of the ladder that it has beaten – 4-2 in November’s reverse fixture. Seventeen of Mainz’s 27 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 13 away games.

One cannot fathom why 188Bet thinks that it is necessary to offer odds of +101  about Freiburg and Mainz combining for over two and a half goals in the Black Forest. The last three German Bundesliga clashes between Freiburg and Mainz have had six goals, five goals and four goals.

Likewise, odds of +110  with Paddy Power are very generous about the German Bundesliga’s second-placed side, Leipzig, beating Leverkusen in Germany’s east on Saturday.

Twenty-seven rounds into the German Bundesliga competition and it is no accident that Leipzig is leading the mythical title race without Bayern Munchen – the Red Bulls are in the silver medal position on merit. Leipzig is 10-1-2 in its 13 German Bundesliga home matches, including being 5-0 against top-eight teams. It is also no accident that Leverkusen is 10th on the German Bundesliga ladder because, while the Company 11 are 5-1-7 on their divisional travels, they have collected just one point from their seven away games versus sides positioned higher than 12th. Leverkusen can score goals but it cannot shut out even relatively weak teams.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Leipzig enjoys a 10-3-4 lead over Leverkusen, including a 3-2 away victory in November’s reverse fixture and much better numbers versus most of the division’s big boys. Leipzig should not be odds against to get the better of a Leverkusen side that has won only one of its last six German Bundesliga matches and that was versus Darmstadt.

Koln and Monchengladbach may not contribute a great deal to the German Bundesliga entertainment value when they meet on Saturday and one’s final pick is under two and a half goals in that game at odds of -130  with Marathonbet.

November’s reverse German Bundesliga fixture featured three goals but eight of Koln’s 13 divisional home matches have gone under two and a half goals. Monchengladbach has played 13 German Bundesliga away games and seven of them have gone under two and a half goals. Four of the last five German Bundesliga clashes between Koln and Monchengladbach have gone under two and a half goals, with this term’s encounter being the first to exceed one goal since April 2012. Also, it took a 90th-minute Marcel Risse goal to secure Koln’s 2-1 German Bundesliga success and scupper punters who had bet on the autumn match going under two and a half goals.

Tips Summary

Freiburg v Mainz – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 8th April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +101

Leipzig to beat Leverkusen
Saturday 8th April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +110

Koln v Monchengladbach – Under 2.5 Goals
Saturday 8th April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  -130


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