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Peterborough is the hottest team in English League One and backing the Posh to score a bucketful of goals in its home game against Shrewsbury on Saturday is the most attractive long-priced football wager available this weekend.
It would be fair to say that many Peterborough supporters were disappointed with Posh’s owner, Darragh MacAnthony, decision to hire Graham Westley, but Darren Ferguson’s successor has won over most of his critics in fewer than three months. Peterborough is playing all-out attacking football, scoring 34 goals in its 12 English League One matches since Westley breezed into the ABAX Stadium.
Peterborough’s English League One attacking numbers under Westley are extraordinary. Peterborough has scored at least two goals in 11 of its 12 English League One games since it underwent a change of manager, hitting four or more goals four times. Those are striking statistics that the likes of Barcelona, Bayern Munchen and Real Madrid would be proud.
There is no fluke to Peterborough’s recent scoring results. Westley has got Peterborough’s youthful team playing with reckless abandon, as evidenced by the numbers of attempts – both in total and on target – that the Posh have racked up in their last 12 English League One matches. Peterborough has had 205 attempts in its last 12 English League One games, 87 of which have been on target. Peterborough began the English League One season poorly but still it leads the division for total attempts (321 – 23 more than Coventry) and attempts on target (130 – eight more than Walsall).
One fancies Peterborough to get the better of Shrewsbury in Saturday’s English League One match at the ABAX Stadium as the Shrews are sliding down the ladder and their manager, Micky Mellon, is being linked with third-placed Walsall. However, one does not trust Peterborough to cover a big spread – for example, the Posh are trading at odds of 61/10 7.10 +610 6.10 6.10 -0.16 with Marathonbet to beat Shrewsbury by more than two goals – because Westley’s charges have conceded the same number of English League One goals as their weekend guests. Westley has witnessed three English League One clean sheets since he filled the void that Alex Ferguson’s son vacated, conceding multiple goals in five of those 12 divisional games.
The best way to bet on Peterborough at long odds is to back it to score a large number of goals without worrying about the tally that it concedes. SkyBet is offering odds of 15/2 8.50 +750 7.50 7.50 -0.13 that Peterborough bags four or more goals versus Shrewsbury, a wager that makes more appeal than backing the Posh to win by more than two goals at roughly the same price. Shrewsbury has kept one clean sheet in its last 11 English League One matches, leaking at least two goals in nine of those games.
Odds of 15/2 8.50 +750 7.50 7.50 -0.13 equates to a percentage chance of 11.76. One is working of a small sample size but Peterborough has scored four or more goals in four of its 12 English League One matches under Westley, which works out at a 33.33% strike rate and equates to odds of 2/1 3.00 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50 . Peterborough knocked Luton out of the English FA Cup last weekend, goals either side of the half-time interval booking the Posh’s berth in the last 64 with little fuss. It could have been a cricket score, though – Peterborough had 34 attempts, 15 of which hit the target. Westley was pleased that Peterborough had made it through but most of his comments after the game were about how the Posh ought to have inflicted some real damage.
No team in England’s top four divisions is averaging more goals per league match than Peterborough, which has a mean of 2.30 goals compared to next best Leicester’s 2.13.
Peterborough to score 4 or more goals v Shrewsbury
12th December 15:00 GMT
Odds: 15/2 8.50 +750 7.50 7.50 -0.13
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