The 10th round of Spanish Primera Division games is not one of the most appetising batches of matches, although one can make a decent case for supporting Atletico Madrid to defeat Deportivo in Friday’s clash that will kick off the action.
Only three rungs separate Atletico and Deportivo on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but, as was the case with Malaga and Depor last weekend, Friday’s game is a classic case of bookmakers chalking up the wrong odds because they place too much emphasis on the current league standings.
Ladders do not tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth nine rounds into any 38-round competition and one of the key to successful punting at this juncture is to identify the matches in which good teams such as Atletico Madrid come up against flattered teams such as Deportivo.
Atletico Madrid is third on the Spanish Primera Division ladder after nine rounds having won six matches and conceded five goals – those are not the numbers of a side that has fluked its position. The knock on Atletico is that it has lost 1-2 at home to Barcelona and drawn 1-1 at home to Real Madrid but one is confident that the Mattressers are, at worst, Spain’s third best team and, also, one is confident that Deportivo will not qualify for a UEFA tournament.
Deportivo is sixth on the Spanish Primera Division ladder after nine rounds but it has won just three games and its victims have been Betis, Espanyol and Vallecano, all of which are ranked 10th or lower – Depor have not come into contact with any side in the top eight this term. Friday’s match, albeit at home, represents a huge jump in class for Deportivo, one that it is trading at odds of -125 with Betfred to fail with a defeat.
One fewer point and Deportivo would have lost its Spanish Primera Division status at the end of last season and one does not think that Depor are a vastly different team this term. Atletico Madrid beat Deportivo 2-0 at home and 2-1 on the road last season so the Spanish Primera Division form lines, both collateral and direct, favour the Mattressers.
Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game between Real Madrid and Las Palmas is interesting on a couple of counts, with the Meringues attractively listed at odds of -110 with SkyBet to win to nil and the potential for a cards play.
Not even the most passionate supporter of Las Palmas could argue a case for the Yellows avoiding defeat at Real Madrid, particularly as they have failed to score in four of their last six Spanish Primera Division matches – that they found the back of Barcelona’s net means little because Barca are giving away goals and that was the day on which Lionel Messi limped off the Camp Nou pitch with a serious injury. Only Malaga has scored fewer Spanish Primera Division goals than Las Palmas and the Yellows have managed the fewest attempts on target in the league. Factor in that Real Madrid has not leaked a home goal in any competition this term and Sky Bet can expect to receive plenty of enquiries for its -110 odds.
Finally, one thinks that it may be profitable to seek out cards markets on Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game between Real Madrid and Las Palmas. Real Madrid and Las Palmas are ranked equal 19th for Spanish Primera Division yellow cards and no top-flight side has collected fewer cautions away from home than the Yellows. Santiago Jaime Latre will make his Santiago Bernabeu debut when he referees Real Madrid versus Las Palmas on Saturday. Jaime Latre has brandished 21 yellow cards and one red card in his four Spanish Primera Division appointments this season so he is long way from being the division’s strictest official. A punt on under 5.5 cards at -120 with Bet365 would be of decent interest.
Atletico Madrid to beat Deportivo
30th October 19:30 GMT
Real Madrid to beat Las Palmas to nil
31st October 15:00 GMT
Real Madrid v Las Palmas Under 5.5 cards
31st October 15:00 GMT
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