Mainz remains in the mix for one of the German Bundesliga’s UEFA Champions League spots and it can strengthen its claim with a home victory over Koln in Sunday’s round closer.
According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Mainz enjoys a strong 10-2-5 lead over Koln, including its 0-0 draw at Koln. Mainz is 8-2-4 at home in the German Bundesliga and that includes losses to the division’s top two sides, Bayern Munchen and Dortmund. Mainz has registered German Bundesliga home wins over the likes of Leverkusen, Monchengladbach and Schalke – the three teams closest to it on the ladder – and, while Koln is 4-6-4 on the road, three of its away defeats have been at three of the sides above Mainz in the standings.
Marathonbet is offering odds of +111 about Mainz registering its 14th German Bundesliga win and that price implies that the O-Fives are not much better than Koln, an assessment with which one takes issue. Mainz is sixth on the German Bundesliga ladder, five rungs and 11 points above a Koln team with which it drew 0-0 on the road in November’s reverse fixture. Only Ingolstadt and Hannover have scored fewer German Bundesliga goals than Koln, which may find itself dragged into a late fight to avoid relegation.
Mainz merits trading at odds around the -111 mark for three German Bundesliga home points against Koln so odds of +111 are several rolls of the board over the top. In what shapes as a difficult German Bundesliga round for punters who like to bet on match results, Mainz is the most attractive wager.
Completing one’s German Bundesliga punting portfolio are a couple of goals bets – under two and a half goals in the game between Darmstadt and Ingolstadt on Saturday and over two and a half goals in the match between Augsburg and Stuttgart that will kick off at the same time. Marathonbet is listing odds of -123 about the low-scoring wager and odds of -167 about the high-scoring one. They will do nicely.
It is the presence of Ingolstadt in a German Bundesliga game at a low-scoring home team that captures one’s attention. Twenty-two of Ingolstadt’s 29 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals, including 12 of its 14 away games – the exceptions to the latter being 0-4 at Hannover and 1-2 at Hertha. Ingolstadt’s German Bundesliga away scoring figures are the division’s worst but its defensive numbers are second only to those of Bayern Munchen. Just 14 of Darmstadt’s 29 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals but only Hannover has netted fewer home goals than the Lilies. Darmstadt has had a nightmare German Bundesliga home campaign, losing each of its seven games versus sides in the top half and being 1-6-7 overall.
Augsburg against Stuttgart has the potential to be more fun to watch than Darmstadt versus Ingolstadt. Seventeen of Augsburg’s 29 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including eight of its 14 home games and November’s reverse fixture that it won 4-0. Twenty-one of Stuttgart’s 29 German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 12 of its 14 away games. Both Augsburg and Stuttgart are in the German Bundesliga’s top five teams when it comes to goals per match and Saturday’s game is one that the home side will be going all out to win.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 30’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Hannover 4-0-13* versus Monchengladbach
Augsburg 10*-0-7 versus Stuttgart
Leverkusen 12*-2-3 versus Frankfurt
Darmstadt 7-1-9* versus Ingolstadt
Hoffenheim 3-4-10* versus Hertha
Bremen 4-2-11* versus Wolfsburg
Bayern Munchen 14*-1-2 versus Schalke
Dortmund 14-1-2* versus Hamburg
Mainz 10*-2-5 versus Koln
Mainz to beat FC Koln
Sunday 17th April, 16:30 GMT
Darmstadt v Ingolstadt – Under 2.5 Goals
Saturday 16th April, 14:30 GMT
Augsburg v Stuttgart – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 16th April, 14:30 GMT