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One is not overly concerned that Mainz has failed to post a German Bundesliga win since its shock 2-1 victory at Bayern Munchen at the beginning of March because the O-Fives are still in much better form than their weekend opponents.
Augsburg finds itself in the middle of a German Bundesliga relegation scrap one season after qualifying for the UEFA Europa League following a miserable run of results – the Fuggerstadter have won just one of their last 10 divisional games and that was victory was over cellar dweller Hannover.
Mainz, which threw away a 2-0 lead against Augsburg in the reverse German Bundesliga fixture at the end of October, has a 12-1-4 collateral form advantage over its Saturday guest, including a clear 6-0-2 edge when one only counts matches featuring teams in the top eight. Furthermore, Mainz’s home record in recent competitive games is terrific – the O-Fives are 5-2-0 since experiencing a surprise 1-2 German DFB-Pokal loss to 1860 Munchen, albeit after being reduced to 10 men.
Augsburg is in freefall down the German Bundesliga ladder, not helped by its inability to stop its opponents scoring – the Fuggerstadter have conceded at least two goals in each of their last five league matches since bowing out of the UEFA Europa League 0-1 on aggregate to Liverpool.
Odds of +115 imply that there is little to choose between Mainz and Augsburg but that is the kind of price that one would expect about a home side against an away team of an equal standard. Mainz is seventh on the German Bundesliga ladder, eight rungs and 14 points ahead of Augsburg. Mainz should be odds on to beat Augsburg and stay in contention for a berth in one of next term’s UEFA competitions.
It is not often that one encounters a perfect collateral form figure but that is the case with Bayern Munchen’s German Bundesliga home game versus Frankfurt on Saturday.
Bayern Munchen boasts a 17-0-0 German Bundesliga collateral form lead over Frankfurt and so one is willing to pick the defending champion at odds of -208 with 888Sport and Unibet to lead the match at the end of both halves.
Frankfurt’s German Bundesliga away record of 2-3-8 is the worst in the division, whereas Bayern Munchen’s home numbers of 12-0-1 are the best in the section. Bayern Munchen has won eight of its 13 German Bundesliga home games by leading at both major breaks and Frankfurt’s divisional away record includes not taking a point off a side in the top 10.
It ought to be one-way traffic when Bayern Munchen welcomes Frankfurt to the Allianz Stadium and one thinks that odds of -208 about Pep Guardiola’s team putting the match to bed in the first half are more than fair in the circumstances.
Betfred and Paddy Power are offering odds of -175 that Dortmund gets the better of Bremen in Saturday’s German Bundesliga game and that the match goes over two and a half goals. This pick rounds out one’s German Bundesliga bets.
Dortmund enjoys a 15-2-0 German Bundesliga collateral form advantage over Bremen and both sides are 18-9 for games going over two and a half goals. Also, nine of Dortmund’s 13 German Bundesliga home matches have gone over two and a half goals, 10 of Bremen’s 14 German Bundesliga away matches have gone over two and a half goals and the reverse fixture in October resulted in a 3-1 road triumph for BVB.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 28’s nine games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Leverkusen 7-2-8* versus Wolfsburg
Bayern Munchen 17*-0-0 versus Frankfurt
Darmstadt 8-0-9* versus Stuttgart
Hannover 4*-3-10 versus Hamburg
Ingolstadt 8*-1-8 versus Schalke
Mainz 12*-1-4 versus Augsburg
Dortmund 15*-2-0 versus Bremen
Monchengladbach 7*-2-8 versus Hertha
Hoffenheim 6*-3-8 versus Koln
Mainz to beat Augsburg
Saturday 2nd April, 14:30 GMT
Bayern Munich Half Time/Full Time
Saturday 2nd April, 14:30 GMT
Dortmund to beat Bremen & Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 2nd April, 17:30 GMT
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