No Reason to Desert Unbeaten Hoffenheim at Home

Hoffenheim beat Bayern Munich 1-0 in their last home outing.

The bookmaker fraternity’s underestimating of Hoffenheim continues and it is tough to get away from the opportunity to back Hoffe at odds against to beat Monchengladbach in one of the seven German Bundesliga games scheduled for Saturday.

One does not know what more Hoffenheim has to do to convince bookmakers and, obviously, punters that it is the real deal. Hoffenheim is third on the German Bundesliga ladder after 28 rounds and, with Germany having four UEFA Champions League spots – the fourth-placed team gets into the qualifying phase – Hoffe are almost guaranteed to have a crack at Europe’s premier club competition because they are eight points clear of fifth-placed Herta with half a dozen rounds remaining. Hoffenheim is 9-5-0 in its 14 German Bundesliga home matches, including a 1-0 victory over Bayern Munchen – Hoffe are the only team to boast a direct head-to-head advantage over the tournament’s clear frontrunner.

Monchengladbach has taken out seven of its last 11 German Bundesliga games to lift itself on the top half of the ladder but it has achieved most of its recent divisional wins versus out-of-form and/or lowly ranked sides. One is not convinced that Monchengladbach is any better than its eighth position on the German Bundesliga ladder and the Foals have really struggled away to the decent teams, earning only one point in its five road matches against Bayern Munchen, Leipzig, Dortmund, Hertha and Freiburg.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Hoffenheim holds an impressive 13-3-1 edge over Monchengladbach, which is remarkable in light of Hoffe and the Foals being just five rungs apart on the ladder. Odds of +105  with Marathonbet about Hoffenheim acknowledge that Hoffe are superior to Monchengladbach but the market does not pay sufficient credit to the underrated favourites. The reverse German Bundesliga fixture resulted in a 1-1 draw when Monchengladbach hosted Hoffenheim in November.

Leipzig is too short in betting for its German Bundesliga home game versus Freiburg on Saturday but there is value about the Red Bulls winning and both sides scoring, an option that is trading at odds of +220  with several bookmakers, including 32Red, Bwin and William Hill.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Leipzig enjoys an 11-4-2 lead over Freiburg, including a 4-1 success in November’s reverse fixture. Leipzig merits strong favouritism but one prefers the Red Bulls at healthy odds to win without keeping a clean sheet over them at around the 1.50 mark to collect three points by any method. Freiburg has scored in 24 of its 28 German Bundesliga matches, including 12 of its 14 away games. Freiburg’s defence is likely to let it down but the Black Forest team knows how to find the back of the net itself.

Bremen is one of the German Bundesliga’s form sides and it appeals at odds of +130  with BetVictor, 188Bet and Paddy Power to get the better of Hamburg in a northern derby.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Bremen’s advantage over Hamburg is 11-2-4, including a favourable 2-2 result for the River Islanders against the Red Shorts in their November encounter. It is a classic example of a league ladder lying – Bremen is 11th, only two rungs and three points above Hamburg, but one’s German Bundesliga collateral form data suggests that the River Islanders are quite a lot better than the Red Shorts, which means that one must tip the hosts at odds of +130 . Remember, those odds imply that bookmakers rate Bremen lower than Hamburg when not accounting for home advantage.

Tips Summary

Hoffenheim to beat Monchengladbach
Saturday 15th April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +105

Leipzig to beat Freiburg & BTTS
Saturday 15th April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +220

Bremen to beat Hamburg
Sunday 16th April, 14:30 BST
Odds:  +130

RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen

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