No more Sack Race casualties this season


Six English Premier League bosses have lost their jobs since the season kicked off and one is willing to bet that no-one else joins the unemployment queue before the action ends.

Gus Poyet followed Neil Warnock, Alan Irvine, Alan Pardew, Harry Redknapp and Paul Lambert in clearing his desk at an English Premier League club, with Pardew and Redknapp going of their own freewill and the others removed forcibly. The number of bookmakers betting on what is colloquially known as the Sack Race is fewer than it was at the beginning of the English Premier League season but those firms that are open for business believe that there are six managers who may be replaced before the competition reaches its climax.

Nigel Pearson, Sam Allardyce and Manuel Pellegrini are the English Premier League Sack Race contenders who are trading at single-digit odds. One would not back any of them to go.

Pearson’s Leicester is seven points short of English Premier League safety and, if Foxes owner Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha was going to pull the pin, surely he would have done it a few months ago. Leicester has been in English Premier League peril for quite some time and Pearson’s behaviour would have provided Srivaddhanaprabha with a good excuse to cut ties.

Allardyce’s West Ham is going through the motions after its quest for one of the English Premier League’s several UEFA tournament berths ran out of momentum. Allardyce’s critics among the West Ham fan base are making their displeasure known once again and it would seem that Big Sam’s future lies away from the Boleyn Ground, possibly at Sunderland. However, West Ham appears to be in no rush to make a final decision about Allardyce and one would be amazed if the parties went their separate ways over the next two months.

Manuel Pellegrini’s Manchester City blew its UEFA Champions League campaign and now only an improbable English Premier League title may keep him at the Citizens – and even that piece of silverware may be insufficient. Manchester City does not seem to have anything to gain from getting rid of Pellegrini before the end of the English Premier League season, though, because the Citizens will not be able to chase their top targets until the European summer time.

Sack Race bookmakers are not ruling out the prospect of Everton, Newcastle or Queens Park Rangers being the next English Premier League team to replace its coach before the competition is over. But neither Everton nor Newcastle is in English Premier League relegation trouble – the Toffees and the Magpies are at least nine points ahead of 18th-placed Burnley – while Queens Park Rangers is as good as down.

Both Norwich and Manchester United changed managers in April of the last English Premier League season – Chris Hughton and David Moyes were shown the door by the Canaries and the Red Devils respectively – but no boss had been removed that late in any of the previous six top-flight campaigns. One cannot see why any English Premier League side would make such a late switch this term and, therefore, one likes the odds of -120  that Paddy Power is offering about no changes.

Odds of -120  equate to a 54.64 per cent probability and one would estimate that there is a greater than 75% chance that no English Premier League boss will receive his marching orders before the season finishes. Seventy-five per cent equates to odds of -303  so one thinks the value is stark.

Tips Summary

No more Premier League manager casualties
Odds:  -120
Where to Bet: Paddy Power

Alan Irvine
Alan Pardew
Gus Poyet
Harry Redknapp
Neil Warnock
Paul Lambert
The Sack Race
Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha

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