No justification for Newcastle’s favouritism

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Newcastle has earned one point from its last nine English Premier League games and it has failed to score away from St James’ Park in more than 11 halves yet bookmakers are asking punters to believe that the Magpies are the favourites for Saturday’s match versus Queens Park Rangers at Loftus Road.

One could say much the same about Queens Park Rangers – the Hoops have collected two points from their last five English Premier League games – and that Newcastle will be more up for the match than its host because of the state of the ladder. But, at least prior to last weekend, Queens Park Rangers had been playing much better than Newcastle and everything has its price – the Hoops are over the odds.

Yes, Queens Park Rangers was disappointing in losing 0-6 at Manchester City but one does not think that it was a bad as some media outlets have made out and, after all, did anyone really expect the Hoops to win at the Etihad Stadium and stay alive in the English Premier League relegation fight for one more round? No, most people expected Queens Park Rangers to lose heavily and that is exactly what occurred.

One would argue that Newcastle’s performance in drawing 1-1 at home to English Premier League struggler West Bromwich was every bit as poor as that of Queens Park Rangers at Manchester City. Newcastle had everything for which to play against a West Bromwich team that was as good as safe from the drop and yet the Magpies had to come from behind to draw and end their eight-match English Premier League losing run.

It is not pleasant to say this about a group of professional players but, having watched several of Newcastle’s recent English Premier League games, one is firmly of the opinion that most Magpies regulars are not putting in shifts for their under-pressure interim manager, John Carver. And one suspects that, away from the glare of St James’ Park, those Newcastle players may down tools versus Queens Park Rangers.

Newcastle’s English Premier League fate will remain in its own hands even if it loses at Queens Park Rangers provided that Hull does not topple a Tottenham team trying to reach the UEFA Europa League at White Hart Lane. Will Newcastle’s players pull out their fingers if they need to get a result at home to West Ham in the final English Premier League round? Maybe. But one is not willing to bet on them giving 100 per cent at Queens Park Rangers in the circumstances.

Queens Park Rangers is down but one feels that the Hoops players are keen both to get off the foot of the English Premier League ladder and do their best for their interim boss, Chris Ramsey. Also, one feels that the apologies of Queens Park Rangers stars following their side’s 0-6 loss at Manchester City were much more sincere than those of their Newcastle counterparts in recent times. One expects Queens Park Rangers to deliver a committed performance even though it cannot escape relegation to the English Championship.

In conclusion, Newcastle is criminally underpriced to beat Queens Park Rangers at Loftus Road. The English Premier League home numbers of Queens Park Rangers are superior to Newcastle’s away statistics and, while that is a relatively crude way of analysing Saturday’s match, it is a quick and easy way to demonstrate the idiocy of the betting market.

If Queens Park Rangers was still able to avoid relegation from the English Premier League then one suspects that it would be trading at odds around the -111 mark to get the better of Newcastle. One is willing to take a punt on Queens Park Rangers at odds of +210 with many bookmakers, including Bet365 and BetVictor, even though it is doomed. If you cannot find a better English Premier League favourite to back than Newcastle, you really ought to give up punting.

Tips Summary

QPR to beat Newcastle
16th May 15:00 GMT
Odds: +210
Where to Bet: Bet365, BetVictor

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