Backing both teams to score in Saturday’s match between Milan and Napoli is the best bet on the Italian Serie A card as the championship race gathers pace after Christmas.
Manuel Locatelli and Alessio Romagnoli are suspended for Milan and the Red and Blacks may also take to the field without Luca Antonelli and Mattia De Sciglio. Milan boss Vincenzo Montella is light on for central defenders and midfielders of any variety but the Red and Blacks should pose problems for Napoli’s defence regardless of whom their manager elects to deploy in forward positions.
Napoli has been conceding goals for quite some time – no clean sheets in any of its last five matches across all competitions – and the CAF Africa Cup of Nations has weakened its stopping stocks. Sampdoria, Spezia and Pescara have each breached Napoli’s defence since the Blues released Omar El Kaddouri, Faouzi Ghoulam and Kalidou Koulibaly to play in the CAF Africa Cup of Nations and Milan is a stronger side than the aforementioned ones.
Milan has a good Italian Serie A home record having won seven of its 10 games in front of its own fans. Milan has scored in eight of its 10 Italian Serie A home matches and, while it has kept five clean sheets, Napoli is far and away the most attack-minded team to visit the Red and Blacks.
Napoli has netted an Italian Serie A-leading 45 goals in its 20 games, scoring 18 goals in its nine road matches, firing blanks in just two of its away fixtures. Both sides have scored in five of Napoli’s nine Italian Serie A away games and seven of them have gone over two and a half goals.
Milan and Napoli played out a six-goal cracker when they met in Italian Serie A action in Naples five months ago, the Blues winning 4-2 and both teams hitting the scoreboard inside the first 51 minutes. The end result flattered Napoli because Milan had two players sent off in the last sixth.
That neither Milan nor Napoli will keep a clean sheet in the most interesting game on this weekend’s Italian Serie A program is available at odds of -149 which appears somewhat generous given the likely line-ups.
Sassuolo is the only Italian Serie A team to have registered a loss to Pescara but the Black and Greens lost that match in the courts because they fielded an ineligible player. One is picking Sassuolo to right its perceived wrong on Sunday.
One is a fan of Italian Serie A collateral form and, if one puts a pen through August’s non-event between Sassuolo and Pescara, one’s number crunching comes out 10-5-2 in favour of the Black and Greens. Remember that Sassuolo experienced a pre-Christmas injury nightmare and one could have forgiven the Blacks and Greens for not holding a huge lead over Pescara. That Sassuolo rates so superior to Pescara anyway means that one wants to back the Black and Greens, which has got most of its starters back on deck, to win at the Dolphins. Sassuolo is trading at odds of +153 with Marathonbet and it will not lack motivation.
Finally, bookmakers may be a bit slow to catch up on the latest goals trend pertaining to Cagliari in Italian Serie A.
Sixteen of Cagliari’s 20 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals but the four that did not were the most recent four away matches of the Red and Blues. It may not be a coincidence that Cagliari’s Italian Serie A road games have become low scoring following their 1-5 loss to Torino in November that was one away flogging too far.
Roma skews over two and a half goals in its Italian Serie A matches as well so punters can get close to even money about under three and a half goals when the Yellow and Reds host Cagliari on Sunday. Marathonbet is listing odds of -108 that Roma versus Cagliari stays under three and a half goals, which strikes one as a decent value investment.
AC Milan v Napoli – Both Teams to Score
Saturday 21st January, 19:45 GMT
Sassuolo to beat Pescara
Sunday 22nd January, 14:00 GMT
Roma v Cagliari – Under 3.5 Goals
Sunday 22nd January, 19:45 GMT