Gary Neville has not enjoyed the greatest introduction to the world of football management but one thinks that the former television pundit’s Valencia side rates as the best bet of the final Spanish Primera Division round in 2015.
Valencia’s Saturday home match against Getafe will kick off this weekend’s abbreviated Spanish Primera Division round – Barcelona is away on FIFA Club World Cup business – and one cannot get away from selecting Neville’s eighth-placed team at odds of -143 with BetVictor to collect three points.
Neville is friends with Valencia owner Peter Lim – they are partners in numerous English ventures, including Salford – and it will be interesting to see how their relationship holds up if the Spanish Primera Division side does not qualify for one of UEFA’s two club competitions. Valencia fans expect their team to participate in the UEFA Champions League and, realistically, Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid have mortgages on three of the Spanish Primera Division’s four berths. One was surprised that Neville accepted Lim’s offer to take charge of Valencia because there seems to be more downside to the job than upside.
Valencia ought to get the better of Getafe at the Mestalla, though, and those odds of -143 are hard to resist. Valencia and Getafe have had 12 common Spanish Primera Division foes and one’s collateral form analysis favours Neville’s side. Eight of the 12 Spanish Primera Division collateral lines favour Valencia, one favours Getafe and three are ties.
Then there are the respective Spanish Primera Division home and away records of Valencia and Getafe. Valencia is 3-4-0 in Spanish Primera Division home action, whereas Getafe is 0-1-6 away in the league. Not since October 2014 has Getafe won a Spanish Primera Division road game versus a team that is a current member of the top flight. Getafe has lost its last three Spanish Primera Division away matches by an aggregate score of 2-12 – the Deep Blues hate travelling.
Barcelona’s FIFA Club World Cup commitments mean that our speculative pick of Atletico Madrid to be top of the Spanish Primera Division ladder on New Year’s Day has a great chance of rewarding punters who backed the option at odds of +2800 .
Atletico Madrid will wrap up the Spanish Primera Division round when it tackles Malaga on Sunday and one likes the odds of -128 available with Marathonbet about the Mattressers winning and moving three points clear of Barcelona.
Malaga and Atletico Madrid have had 14 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and one’s collateral form analysis supports the big gap between the sides on the ladder. Ten of the 14 Spanish Primera Division collateral form lines favour Atletico, three favour Malaga and one is a tie. Deportivo, Sociedad and Vallecano are the only Spanish Primera Division teams that Malaga has defeated and everyone knows that there is a huge difference between the league’s heavyweights – Atletico, Barcelona and Real Madrid – and its other competitors. Malaga has scored a Spanish Primera Division-low nine goals and, like Ingolstadt in the German Bundesliga, it is a miracle that it is not in the drop zone.
Finally, the odds of several bookmakers, including Bet365 and Totesport, about Betis not losing its Spanish Primera Division derby against Sevilla on Saturday are sufficiently long for one to get involved in the clash.
Betis is three points and four rungs below Sevilla on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but one’s collateral form analysis suggests that the standings are misleading. Betis and Sevilla have had 12 common Spanish Primera Division opponents, with one’s take on the results of those games being that seven collateral form lines favour the former, two favour the latter and three are ties. Sevilla has won five and drawn one of its last six matches across all competitions but there is no depth to its recent form, including a 1-0 UEFA Champions League Group D home win over a Juventus side that did not have a lot for which to play.
Successful punting is all about obtaining value and odds of -110 with the aforementioned bookmakers about Betis plus one goal in Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division derby represents good value. Sevilla is poisonous at odds on for an away win.
Valencia to beat Getafe
19th December 15:00 GMT
Atletico Madrid to beat Malaga
20th December 19:30 GMT
Betis +1 to beat Sevilla
19th December 19:30 GMT
Once or twice per month we will provide you with the latest sports tips and keep you updated about the biggest events.