Nervy night ahead for Hamburg and Freiburg


Hamburg and Freiburg will kick off the 32nd round of German Bundesliga games and one thinks that under two and a half goals in that match represents the best bet on the coupon.

With three rounds of the German Bundesliga to go it would appear that five teams are deep in relegation trouble and two of them are Hamburg and Freiburg. Consequently, one is expecting a nervy encounter between the struggling sides on Friday, one in which neither team takes unnecessary risks.

Both Hamburg and Freiburg are sides that have been friendly to under-two-and-a-half-goals punters throughout the German Bundesliga. Eighteen of Hamburg’s 31 German Bundesliga games have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 15 home matches. Eighteen of Freiburg’s 31 German Bundesliga games have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 15 away matches. You would be hard pushed to find data that is stronger than those statistics for such a bet, plus there is the situational aspect because it is a German Bundesliga relegation six-pointer that will be a scrap.

Several bookmakers, including Bet365 and PaddyPower, are offering odds of +100 about the German Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Freiburg going under two and a half goals. December’s German Bundesliga reverse fixture was a 0-0 draw, although Freiburg did miss an early penalty kick.

The second most appealing bet on the German Bundesliga card is a punt on a relatively high-scoring match when Hannover hosts northern rival Bremen, on Saturday. Hannover is last but one on the German Bundesliga ladder after going 15 divisional games without a win, while Bremen is seventh and looking to secure one of the UEFA Europa League spots. Home draws are not what Hannover needs with three rounds of the German Bundesliga remaining and Bremen could do with three points given that its next two matches are much tougher assignments – home to Monchengladbach and away to Dortmund.

Bremen’s German Bundesliga games have the second highest average number of goals – 3.42 compared to Frankfurt’s 3.58 – and 19 of its 31 matches have gone over two and a half goals, including 11 of its 15 away games. Hannover’s overall German Bundesliga data does not jump off the page – for the record, 16 of its 31 matches have gone over two and a half goals, including eight of its 15 home games – but the 96ers have been trending over strongly in recent weeks. Five of Hannover’s last six German Bundesliga matches have gone over two and a half goals and both teams have scored in 11 of the last 13 divisional games featuring the 96ers. One can bet on Hannover’s German Bundesliga derby against Bremen going over two and a half goals at odds of -169 with 888Sport and Unibet – both sides to score is slightly shorter odds.

Finally, Wolfsburg needs to buck up its ideas if it wants to qualify for the UEFA Champions League group stage directly so one is keen to back it to win at Paderborn on Sunday.

Paderborn stole a 1-1 draw when its visited Wolfsburg in the German Bundesliga five months ago when, on the balance of play, the promoted team should have copped a three- or four-goal hammering. Paderborn’s defence is the German Bundesliga’s joint second most porous and that is a recipe for disaster versus a Wolfsburg side that can allow its opponent to make the running and launch counter attacks.

Coral is offering the tasty odds of -137 about Wolfsburg beating Paderborn and ensuring that neither Monchengladbach nor Leverkusen closes in on second position on the German Bundesliga ladder, which has the property of the high-scoring Wolves for most of the competition.

Tips Summary

Hamburg v Freiburg Under 2.5 goals
8th May 19:30 GMT
Odds:  +100
Where to Bet: Bet365, PaddyPower

Hannover v Bremen Over 2.5 goals
9th May 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -169
Where to Bet: 888Sport, Unibet

Wolfsburg to beat Paderborn
10th May 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -137
Where to Bet: Coral

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