Bookmakers are convinced that Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game between Monaco and Manchester City will be relatively high scoring but Bet365 is allowing punters to back the Red and Whites to find the back of the bet against the Citizens before the 41-minute mark at tasty odds.
Monaco lost 3-5 to Manchester City when the teams met in the UEFA Champions League last 16 three weeks ago, with the Red and Whites opening their account in the 32nd minute and missing a second-half penalty kick. Monaco has made waves throughout the football world for its attacking statistics this season and one thinks that the Red and Whites will not stand on ceremony at home to a Manchester City that has kept three consecutive clean sheets but they did occur versus Sunderland, Stoke and Middlesbrough. Time and time again, Manchester City has failed to shut out strong sides – the Citizens have not managed a clean sheet in any of their eight English Premier League matches versus the top seven, conceding at least two goals in four of those games.
Of Monaco’s 25 home matches across all competitions, 22 of them have gone over two and a half goals, while Manchester City’s away strike rate is 16 of 24. Those numbers go a long way to explain why bookmakers want to duck bets on over two and a half goals. The data relating to the time of the first goal scored by Monaco and conceded by Manchester City is not as persuasive – the Red and Whites have netted before the 41-minute mark in 13 of its 25 home games and the Citizens have been breached by that time in nine of their 24 away matches – but the situation tips one over the edge. Bet365‘s quote of -120 about Monaco scoring early is perfectly acceptable.
It is possible to multi up one’s UEFA Champions League picks this week because all of them are on the same Bet365 market.
One’s second UEFA Champions League selection is Atletico Madrid to score against Leverkusen before the 39-minute mark of Wednesday’s game in Spain. Atletico leads Leverkusen 4-2 after the UEFA Champions League last-16 first leg in Germany when even the local media reported that it was men versus boys. Atletico led 2-0 inside 25 minutes and the Mattressers contributed one of their opponent’s consolation goals.
Leverkusen has been horrible in the German Bundesliga and none moreso than on its travels – the Company 11 are 0-1-4 away to higher ranked rivals, including a 2-6 hammering at Dortmund that resulted in Roger Schmidt losing his job as coach. Leverkusen has kept just one clean sheet in its 11 German Bundesliga road matches and one doubts whether the Company 11 will be enthusiastic for their assignment at an Atletico team that does not make a habit of leaking three unanswered goals at home. The task facing Leverkusen to stay in the UEFA Champions League is immense and one can see the Company 11 saving their collective energy for another day.
Atletico Madrid has scored before the 39-minute mark in 11 of its 20 home games across all tournaments and Leverkusen may be the least committed visitor to the Vincente Calderon this term given the state of the UEFA Champions League tie so one is keen to back the Mattressers to strike fairly early at odds of -120 on Bet365‘s exotic line.
Porto is another one of Europe’s second-tier teams that is in need of a UEFA Champions League miracle this week. Porto trails Juventus 0-2 going into Tuesday’s second leg of their UEFA Champions League last-16 clash and, while the Dragons had no luck last month because they were reduced to 10 men before half time when the scores were level, now they have to score at least twice at a ground where Juve is brilliant.
Juventus has won each of its last 13 home matches across all competitions and one has to go back to April 2013 for the last time that Juve lost a home game by a scoreline that would not result in them eliminating Porto before extra time. Bet365 is quoting odds of -120 about Juventus scoring before the 43-minute mark versus Porto and that is more than fair, particularly given the possibility of the Dragons being beaten mentally before the match kicks off.
Monaco to score before 41 minutes
Wednesday 15th March, 19:45 GMT
Atletico Madrid to score before 39 minutes
Wednesday 15th March, 19:45 GMT
Juventus to score before 43 minutes
Tuesday 14th March, 19:45 GMT
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