Milan to Continue Rise Under Mihajlovic


Juventus and Napoli are operating on a different level to their Italian Serie A rivals and both championship chasers should post Round 24 victories, albeit at very short odds.

Picking Juventus and Napoli to beat Frosinone and Carpi does not require a great deal of brain power, not least because both Italian Serie A title contenders hold huge collateral form leads over their respective Sunday opponents – 16-1-2 for the White and Blacks and 16-2-1 for the Blues.

The odds available about Juventus and Napoli earning three points in Round 24 of Italian Serie A mean that neither team makes one’s short list, with Milan, Sassuolo and the draw between Torino and Chievo comprising one’s three picks.

Sinisa Mihajlovic has got Milan firing on all cylinders and climbing the Italian Serie A ladder after losing four of its first seven league matches. The opposite is true of Stefano Colantuono and his Udinese side that has collected a paltry two points from its last five Italian Serie A games.

Collateral form analysis is one’s favourite way of assessing the value of performances and, according to one’s number crunching, Milan is more superior to Udinese than the ladder suggests. Milan enjoys a 12-1-6 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Udinese and that includes a 3-2 victory in September’s reverse fixture in which the Red and Blacks eased up after leading 3-0 at home time. Also, Milan holds a 8-0-1 Italian Serie A collateral form advantage over Udinese when only matches featuring the top nine teams are assessed.

Coral is listing Milan at odds of -175 to win its Italian Serie A home game versus Udinese on Sunday and that offer represents the most appetising punt on the program.

The Italian Serie A collateral form data of Sassuolo against Palermo is very similar to that of Milan versus Udinese so one is interested in the Black and Greens at odds of -115 , also with Coral, to register a home win on Sunday. Sassuolo boasts a 12-2-5 Italian Serie A collateral form lead over Palermo, including a 1-0 victory in September’s reverse fixture and a 8-0-0 advantage when one focuses on games involving the top eight sides. Sassuolo has not won any of its last five Italian Serie A matches but the visit of a Palermo team that is yet to defeat a top-nine opponent provides the Black and Greens with an excellent chance.

Betting on draws is not something that one does often but one is going to make a rare exception for Sunday’s Italian Serie A game between the equally matched Torino and Chievo.

Torino and Chievo occupy adjacent positions on the Italian Serie A ladder and one’s collateral form analysis suggests that there are peas from the same pod. Torino holds a 7-6-6 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Chievo – six ties is, in itself, remarkable – and September’s reverse fixture resulted in a 1-0 home win for the latter. Marathonbet is offering odds of +266 about Torino and Chievo sharing the spoils and that seems like a very fair wager indeed.

Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form figures for every one of Round 24’s games. An asterisk signifies that the side enjoys a head-to-head advantage.

Bologna 6-4-9* versus Fiorentina
Genoa 7-1-11* versus Lazio
Verona 3-3-13* versus Internazionale
Napoli 16*-2-1 versus Carpi
Torino 7-6-6* versus Chievo
Frosinone 2*-1-16 versus Juventus
Sassuolo 12-2-5* versus Palermo
Milan 12*1-6 versus Udinese
Atalanta 8*-3-8 versus Empoli
Roma 12-4-3* versus Sampdoria

Tips Summary

Milan to beat Udinese
7th February 14:00 GMT
Odds: -175

Sassuolo to beat Palermo
7th February 14:00 GMT
Odds: -115

Torino v Chievo – Draw
7th February 14:00 GMT
Odds: +266

Sinisa Mihajlovic

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