Milan can Benefit from Missing Out on Europe

Milan have no European distractions ahead of the match with Fiorentina.

Milan is upset not to be participating in one of UEFA’s club competitions but being able to focus on domestic matters is one of the reasons why one is tipping the Red and Blacks to beat Fiorentina in Italian Serie A action on Sunday.

Whereas Milan have an uninterrupted week to prepare for its Italian Serie A home game against Fiorentina, the Purples have to back up from a UEFA Europa League away first leg versus Monchengladbach. Fiorentina visited Internazionale immediately after a UEFA Europa League home match versus PAOK earlier this term and the Purples lost 2-4 to Milan’s San Siro housemates. One does not like to back many teams backing up from UEFA Europa League trips and Fiorentina’s Italian Serie A data is not particularly strong, either.

Milan and Fiorentina are adjacent on the Italian Serie A ladder, the Red and Blacks one rung and one point above the Purples following 24 rounds. But the Italian Serie A ladder is being deceitful to casual observers because, according to one’s collateral form analysis, Milan enjoys a 10-3-6 edge over Fiorentina. Furthermore, Milan boasts an 8-1-1 Italian Serie A collateral form lead over Fiorentina if one only counts results featuring the top 11 sides. To cut a long story short, Milan has outperformed Fiorentina in almost every Italian Serie A game against the division’s powers.

This season’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture between Milan and Fiorentina, held in Florence five months ago, ended in a 0-0 draw so that head-to-head form line favours the Red and Blacks. And last term’s Italian Serie A clash at the San Siro resulted in a 2-0 home victory for one’s selection.

Marathonbet and William Hill are quoting odds of +130  about Milan posting an Italian Serie A home win over Fiorentina when one was expecting the Red and Blacks to be close to even money, hence why they are one’s headline grabbers.

The other Italian Serie A match on which one wants to focus is Sunday’s encounter between Roma and Torino in the capital city. There are two bets of interest – over two and a half goals at -167  with Marathonbet and over 10 and a half corner kicks, with odds on the latter unlikely to become available until later this week.

Fifteen of Roma’s 24 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, including nine of its 11 home matches. Fifteen of Torino’s 24 Italian Serie A games have gone over two and a half goals, including six of its 12 away matches. And Torino beat Roma 3-1 when the reverse Italian Serie A fixture took place in Turin in September.

Roma has scored more Italian Serie A home goals than any of its championship rivals even though the Yellow and Reds have played the equal fewest games in front of their own fans. Torino’s 12 Italian Serie A matches have had an average of exactly three goals. Moreover, nine of Torino’s 10 Italian Serie A games versus higher ranked opponents have gone over two and a half goals and the odd match out finished 1-1.

Italian Serie A games are averaging 10.55 corner kicks this season but those featuring Roma have a mean of 12.04 and those featuring Torino have a mean of 11.25. There were an amazing 20 corner kicks when Torino hosted Roma in the reverse Italian Serie A fixture so you can see why one cannot wait to see bookmakers such as Bet365 frame its markets – over 10 and a half corners will be an option.

Tips Summary

Milan to beat Fiorentina
Sunday 19th February, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  +130

Roma v Torino – Over 2.5 Goals
Sunday 19th February, 17:00 GMT
Odds:  -167

Roma v Torino – Over 10.5 Corners
Sunday 19th February, 17:00 GMT
Odds: tbc

AC Milan
Serie A

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