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Bet365 offers a wide range of corner-kick markets on English League One matches and, in one’s weekly search for a winning wager at long odds, the midlands derby between Coventry and Peterborough throws up an interesting bet at a big price.
The juicy odds of +550 are available with Bet365 that the English League One game between Coventry and Peterborough goes over 14 corner kicks and one can make a case that the probability is a fair bit greater than 15.38 per cent.
Coventry has forced 94 corner kicks and conceded 66 corners in its 14 English League One matches, numbers than rank the Sky Blues with the fourth highest average for and the 18th highest average against. Coventry will host Peterborough on Saturday so it makes sense to drill down to home games and the Sky Blues have the highest average for corner kicks forced in English League One at 8.17 per match, although they have the lowest average for corners conceded at 3.33.
Most bookmakers use 10 and a half corner kicks as the main line and, at that mark, nine of Coventry’s 14 English League One games have rewarded over punters, including four of its six home matches. What is particularly interesting, though, is that four of Coventry’s 14 English League One games have gone over 14 corner kicks, which equates to odds of +250 .
Peterborough’s ranks just 12th in the English League One for corner kicks forced with an average of 5.60 per match but that statistic does not tell the whole story about the Posh and corners. Dig deeper and you find that Peterborough’s English League One games have had an average of 12.20 corner kicks, which is higher than all bar three teams in the division – Bury, Millwall and Port Vale. Away from home, which is relevant considering that Peterborough will be on the road on Saturday, the Posh are ranked equal third for corner kicks forced and fifth for corners conceded.
Ten of Peterborough’s 14 English League One matches have gone over the common line of 10 and a half corner kicks, including six of its seven away games. And, like Coventry, four of Peterborough’s 14 English League One matches have gone over 14 corner kicks, which equates to odds of +250 .
One is not suggesting that Bet365 should be quoting odds of +250 about Saturday’s English League One game between Coventry and Peterborough going over 14 corner kicks. But one thinks that odds of +550 are over the top based on the aforementioned numbers and the likelihood that both teams, regardless of the derby nature of their clash, will go for the jugular vein of their opponent. Coventry has been very positive in each of its English League One home matches and very positive would be an appropriate way to describe the manner in which Peterborough has played since controversial coach Graham Westley became its boss in late September.
Conservative punters could do a whole lot worse than back Saturday’s English League One match between Coventry and Peterborough to go over 10 and a half corner kicks at odds of +100 with Bet365. Ten and a half corner kicks feels like the wrong line from a trading perspective because it is hard to construct an argument for anything other than over. If one was a bookmaker then one’s take-your-pick line would be 11 and a half corner kicks, while one’s odds about over 14 corners would be either +350 or +400 , probably the latter.
Neither of last season’s English League One games between Coventry and Peterborough went over nine corner kicks but the Sky Blues and the Posh are different animals this term so one is not placing any emphasis on those recent results.
Coventry v Peterborough Over 14 corners
31st October 15:00 GMT
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