Meringues to make really easy work of Almeria


Real Madrid takes part in the first Spanish Primera Division match of the 15th round because it is in a hurry to get to Morocco for the FIFA Club World Cup in which it is seeded to meet Argentina’s San Lorenzo in the championship decider.

And one thinks that Real Madrid will be in a hurry to put its Spanish Primera Division game versus Almeria beyond the reach of its guest, thereby making odds of -175  with several bookmakers, including Bwin and Paddy Power, that Real Madrid leads at half time and full time stand out.

Describing Real Madrid as in form does not do justice to its 19-match winning run across all competitions, victories in which Real has outscored its opponents by a cumulative score of 71-9. Naturally, many punters will head straight to Real Madrid minus one goal but bookmakers are offering shorter odds about that option than Real half time and full time.

Real Madrid has covered the one-goal handicap in 15 of its 19 consecutive victories, with its four one-goal wins coming against being Ludogorets (away), Liverpool (home), Basel (away) and Malaga (away). But Real Madrid has led at half time and full time of 17 of its 19 successive successes, with its only failures on this exotic betting option occurring versus Ludogorets (away) and Barcelona (home).

Almeria could not hold Real Madrid in their Spanish Primera Division clashes last season, losing 0-4 in Madrid and 0-5 in Almeria. Real Madrid led 1-0 at half time in both games before accelerating away from its opponent after the break.

The 15th round of the Spanish Primera Division program is a difficult one from a punting perspective but Real Madrid is overpriced at odds of -175  to lead all the way at Almeria.

Collateral form analysis comes into its own at this point of football campaigns and one’s review of the Spanish Primera Division results of Malaga and Celta suggests that the former is worth supporting at odds of +120  with Coral.

Malaga and Celta have had 12 common Spanish Primera Division opponents and just four of those collateral form lines favour the latter. Furthermore, it would be fair to say that Celta’s form has fallen off the side of a cliff since it held on to beat Barcelona 1-0 at the Camp Nou six weeks ago. Celta has failed to score a goal in any of its last four Spanish Primera Division matches, collecting only one point from games at home to Eibar and Granada and road trips to the capital to play Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid.

Real Madrid knew that it was in a game when Malaga played its most recent Spanish Primera Division home match, with the result in the balance until Gareth Bale scored Real’s second goal in the 83th minute. It was Malaga’s first Spanish Primera Division home defeat this term after it had recorded victories over Bilbao, Eibar, Granada and Rayo Vallecano and draws with Barcelona and Levante.

Finally, some notes on the Spanish Primera Division derby between Sociedad and Bilbao. It is a big game so one’s first thought is to oppose Sociedad since its coach, David Moyes, has an bad record in such matches. Certainly one could do worse than back Bilbao, even though it is away from home, at odds of -167  with Bet365 not to lose in San Sebastian.

Punters who like to bet on high cards points in derbies are not going to like the recent data pertaining to Sociedad, Bilbao and the referee, David Fernandez Borbalan, because it pulls in different directions. Sociedad and Bilbao have been two of the best behaved Spanish Primera Division team this term and none of their last three meetings have had more than six yellow cards. But Borbalan loves to caution and send off players. For example, he showed nine yellow cards and one red cards when he refereed Atletico Madrid’s 1-0 win over Real Madrid in the Spanish Supercopa de Espana.

Tips Summary

Real Madrid HT/FT v Almeria
12th December 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -175
Where to Bet: Bwin, Paddy Power

Malaga to beat Celta
13th December 21:00 GMT
Odds:  +120
Where to Bet: Coral

Bilbao Win/Draw v Sociedad
14th December 20:00 GMT
Odds:  -154
Where to Bet: Bet365

Club World Cup
David Moyes
La Liga
Real Madrid

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