Master to Beat Apprentice at St Mary’s on Sunday

Newcastle drew 1-1 with Liverpool last time out.

The south coast is where both of Sunday’s English Premier League matches will take place and there is one away side that is worth supporting to leave with three points.

That team is not Everton even though one could make a case for the Toffees being worthy favourites for their English Premier League game at Brighton. Everton manager Ronald Koeman is under intense pressure after spending millions during the close season but failing to recruit a striker capable of filling the void that Romelo Lukaku’s move to Manchester United created. Everton has won just two of its seven English Premier League matches but the same goes for Brighton and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Toffees are superior to the Seagulls in spite of the former being on the back page of newspapers for all the wrong reasons. Both Everton and Brighton have lined up against Manchester City and Bournemouth in English Premier League action and one’s collateral form view is that the Toffees have outperformed the Seagulls versus both foes.

However, that is enough about Everton and Brighton. The English Premier League fixture on Sunday in which one is most interested is Southampton’s home game against newly promoted Newcastle. One thinks that bookmakers are reading too much into the fact that Newcastle is relatively new to the English Premier League and not reading enough into the respective results of the Magpies and the Saints this term.

Newcastle and Southampton have encountered four of the same opponents in the first seven rounds of the English Premier League competition – Huddersfield, Stoke, West Ham and Swansea. Newcastle lost 0-1 at Huddersfield whereas Southampton drew 0-0 at the Terriers but, apart from that, one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis is one-way traffic in favour of the Magpies over the Saints – Newcastle beat Stoke 2-1 at home whereas Southampton lost 1-2 at the Potters, Newcastle defeated West Ham 3-0 at home whereas Southampton posted a 3-2 success over the Hammers at St Mary’s and Newcastle won 1-0 at Swansea whereas the Swans held Southampton to a 0-0 draw on England’s south coast.

An English Premier League collateral form advantage of 3-0-1 entitles Newcastle to considerably more respect than it is receiving from bookmakers, all of which have Southampton at odds on to collect three points and leapfrog the Magpies on the ladder. BetVictor‘s odds of  +375   about a Newcastle win are too good to miss. Southampton’s English Premier League scoring record ought to be of major concern to its fans – the Saints have hit the back of the net in only three of their seven divisional matches and they were games versus a West Ham side that played with 10 men for about an hour, a Crystal Palace team that has conceded 17 unanswered goals in the tournament and a Stoke outfit has kept just one clean sheet. No value-conscious punter could steam into Southampton at odds on to get the better of a Newcastle side that believes in itself under UEFA Champions League-winning coach Rafael Benitez, who has said that any takeover of the Magpies will not change his approach to management at St James’s Park.

Whichever way you want to oppose Southampton at home to Newcastle there is value on offer. Saints boss Mauricio Pellegrino and Newcastle manager Benitez have a lengthy association from their times together at Valencia and Liverpool so there should be a bit of spice on the touchline. Benitez loves nothing more than to prove he is an astute tactician so one expects him to go out of his way to show that Pellegrino is the apprentice to his master.

Tips Summary

Newcastle to beat Southampton
Sunday 15th October, 16:00 GMT
Odds:  +375

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