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The most compelling wager in the 32nd round of Italian Serie A games is under two and a half goals in Sunday’s match between two teams on 36 points, Torino and Atalanta.
Only Carpi, Napoli and Roma have featured in more Italian Serie A games that have gone over two and a half goals than Torino but there is a stark difference between the numbers attached to the Maroons at home and on the road. Just six of Torino’s 16 Italian Serie A home matches have gone over two and a half goals, whereas a league-leading 10 of its 15 away games have exceeded that line. Torino skews under two and a half goals in Turin and over two and a half goals elsewhere.
Only Bologna and Verona have featured in more Italian Serie A matches that have gone under two and a half goals than Atalanta. Nineteen of Atalanta’s 31 Italian Serie A games have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 15 away matches. The reverse Italian Serie A fixture between Atalanta and Torino resulted in a 1-0 away win for the Maroons, Cesare Bovo scoring in the 52nd minute.
Marathonbet is listing odds of 3/4 1.75 -133 0.75 -1.33 0.75 that Torino and Atalanta go under two and a half goals when they clash this weekend and that seems a good place to kick off one’s selections.
Next up is seventh-placed Sassuolo, which justified one’s faith with a strong 3-1 Italian Serie A victory at Carpi last time out and hosts 10th-ranked Genoa on Saturday.
Since the turn of the year just four high-performing sides – Bologna (its form is much better than that of a 13th-placed team), Juventus, Napoli and Roma – have beaten Sassuolo in Italian Serie A. Only Juventus, Napoli and Roma have lost fewer Italian Serie A games than Sassuolo, which enjoys a 10-2-7 collateral form advantage over Genoa according to one’s calculations. Genoa’s Italian Serie A away record of 1-4-10 is the division’s second worst behind Frosinone and the Red and Blues are 0-0-9 on the road to sides positioned higher than 12th on the ladder. Indeed, Genoa has scored just two Italian Serie A goals in those nine road defeats.
Sassuolo is available at odds of 11/10 2.10 +110 1.10 1.10 -0.91 with Marathonbet to get the better of Genoa when the Black and Greens should be trading in odds-on territory, albeit by a small margin.
Bookmakers are not affording sufficient respect to Chievo ahead of its Italian Serie A home match against Carpi on Sunday. Chievo is ranked ninth on the Italian Serie A ladder, eight rungs and 13 points above Carpi, yet it is available at odds of 27/20 2.35 +135 1.35 1.35 -0.74 with Marathonbet to prevail.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Chievo holds a 10-2-7 edge over Carpi and November’s reverse fixture resulted in a 2-1 away success for the Yellow and Blues – they would have won 2-0 had they not conceded a second-half own goal after establishing a comfortable lead.
Carpi has won six of its 31 games in its maiden Italian Serie A campaign but it has not beaten a team ranked above 10th on the ladder in its 14 matches versus such sides.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 32’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Frosinone 3-3-13* versus Internazionale
Sassuolo 10-2-7* versus Genoa
Milan 3-1-15* versus Juventus
Empoli 6*-3-10 versus Fiorentina
Chievo 10*-2-7 versus Carpi
Napoli 16*-2-1 versus Verona
Sampdoria 11-1-7* versus Udinese
Torino 11*-1-7 versus Atalanta
Palermo 6*-3-10 versus Lazio
Roma 14*-2-3 versus Bologna
Torino v Atalanta – Under 2.5 Goals
Sunday 10th April, 14:00 GMT
Odds: 3/4 1.75 -133 0.75 -1.33 0.75
Sassuolo to beat Genoa
Saturday 9th April, 17:00 GMT
Odds: 11/10 2.10 +110 1.10 1.10 -0.91
Chievo to beat Carpi
Saturday 9th April, 17:00 GMT
Odds: 27/20 2.35 +135 1.35 1.35 -0.74
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