Mainz to Build upon Its Shock Midweek Victory

Mainz beat Bayern Munich in midweek.

One was gearing up to nominate Mainz as the best bet on the German Bundesliga card long before it beat Bayern Munchen 2-1 on the road because of how it rates versus Darmstadt. Thousands of German Bundesliga punters will jump aboard the Mainz bandwagon following their upset away victory over the championship pacesetter but there is much more substance to the O-Fives than that one road result. Mainz is fifth on the German Bundesliga ladder after 24 rounds and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, it is vastly superior to Darmstadt, which is 14th and fighting against relegation.

One’s raw German Bundesliga collateral form figures say that Mainz enjoys a 12-0-5 lead over Darmstadt. What this means is that Mainz has performed better than Darmstadt versus 11 of the German Bundesliga’s other 17 teams, plus the O-Fives won October’s reverse fixture by a 3-2 scoreline. But one’s German Bundesliga collateral form data gets a hell of more interesting if one only counts the matches featuring the leading dozen sides. According to one’s abbreviated German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Mainz holds an 11-0-1 advantage over Darmstadt – the O-Fives have posted better results than the Lilies against every team except Dortmund.

High on confidence after becoming the first visiting side not to lose at Bayern Munchen in the German Bundesliga this season, Mainz is overpriced at odds of -125 with several bookmakers, including Bet365, Betfred and BetVictor, to remain in the hunt for a UEFA Champions League berth by getting the better of Darmstadt in Sunday’s clash.

Mainz is the only German Bundesliga side that one thinks is over its true odds in the betting on this weekend’s nine games. One’s other German Bundesliga picks are Hamburg and Hertha to go under two and a half goals on Sunday and Bremen and Hannover to go over two and a half goals on Saturday.

In terms of goals per match, Hamburg and Hertha rank among the lowest in the German Bundesliga – only games featuring Ingolstadt and Koln have been less entertaining. Hamburg is a middle-of-the-road German Bundesliga team when it comes to the two-and-a-half-goal line – 11 of HSV’s 24 matches have gone under two and a half goals, including six of their 12 home games – but Hertha skews under and that is what makes one interested in the bet. Fifteen of Hertha’s 24 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals, including seven of its 12 away games. Things are getting very serious for Hertha because it is third on the German Bundesliga ladder and its success has been built upon not conceding soft goals – the Blue and Whites boast the division’s second best defence behind Bayern Munchen.

The latest round of German Bundesliga matches featured four Bremen goals for and four Hannover goals against and there are grounds for expecting Saturday’s northern argument to be high scoring also. Sixteen of Bremen’s 24 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, including seven of its 11 home matches. Fourteen of Hannover’s 24 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, including seven of its 12 away matches. Draws are not much use to Hannover in its predicament seven points adrift of safety on the bottom half of the German Bundesliga ladder and, therefore, one does not expect the Reds to park the bus, especially in light of Bremen’s awful home record.

Many bookmakers, including 888Sport and Unibet, are listing odds of -156  about the German Bundesliga game between Hamburg and Hertha going under two and a half goals, while Marathonbet is offering odds of -133  about the match between Bremen and Hannover going over two and a half goals.

Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 25’s nine games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.

Augsburg 4-4-9* versus Leverkusen
Frankfurt 9-0-8* versus Ingolstadt
Koln 5*-2-10 versus Schalke
Stuttgart 7*-5-5 versus Hoffenheim
Bremen 8-2-7* versus Hannover
Wolfsburg 8-1-8* versus Monchengladbach
Dortmund 7-1-9* versus Bayern Munchen
Mainz 12*-0-5 versus Darmstadt
Hamburg 6-0-11* versus Hertha

Tips Summary

Mainz to beat Darmstadt
Sunday 6th March, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -125

Hamburg v Hertha under 2.5 goals
Sunday 6th March, 16:30 GMT
Odds:  -156

Bremen v Hannover over 2.5 goals
Saturday 5th March, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -133


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