Low-scoring Atalanta to experience capital punishment


Lazio represents the best bet on the Italian Serie A coupon at odds of -167 with Bwin and William Hill to beat the division’s lowest scoring side, Atalanta, in Rome.

Any team that has scored just eight goals in 14 matches is opposable but it is not only Atalanta’s inability to put the ball into the back of the net that points one in the way of Lazio. One’s analysis of the first 14 Italian Serie A rounds indicates that Lazio is vastly superior to Atalanta, even more so than the nine-point gap in the ladder suggests.

Lazio and Atalanta have had 10 common Italian Serie A foes in the opening 14 rounds of the competition and one’s view is that none of those 10 collateral form lines favours the boys from Bergamo, with four favouring the capital crew and six being all square. Factor in Lazio’s home advantage for Saturday’s Italian Serie A match, which one rates as being half a goal, and the outlook is bleak for Atalanta fans.

Head-to-head followers will point out that Atalanta defeated Lazio home and away in last season’s Italian Serie A but one is much more interested in the present than the past. Lazio has the best collateral form lines of any home side on this weekend’s Italian Serie A coupon and it is worthy of greater consideration than Juventus, which is considerably shorter odds to beat Sampdoria in Turin. Whereas Lazio’s collateral form lines with Atalanta read 4-6-0, the same analysis of Juventus and Sampdoria sees the former in front 6-1-3.

Fiorentina is starting to hit its straps and it appeals at odds of -175 with several bookmakers, including Boylesports and Ladbrokes, to win on the road at Cesena.

Cesena has not kept an Italian Serie A clean sheet since it beat Parma 1-0 in the first round and that result does not read all that well now because its victim is the only side below it on the ladder. Cesena has drawn five and lost eight of its last 13 Italian Serie A games and its collateral form line match-up with Fiorentina makes for very ugly reading.

Fiorentina and Cesena have had 10 common Italian Serie A opponents this season and one’s view is that seven of those 10 collateral form lines favour Vincenzo Montella’s team, with two ties and just one favouring the big underdog.

A lightning-fast return to Italian Serie B is on the cards for Cesena unless it can stop conceding goals, particularly when it is in a good spot. Cesena has dropped 11 points from winning positions – the worst figure in Italian Serie A.

Finally, backing both sides to score at odds of -154 with Ladbrokes is the smart way to play when Parma entertains Cagliari in a genuine Italian Serie A relegation scrap.

Neither Parma nor Cagliari is yet to feature in an Italian Serie A goalless draw. Indeed, Parma’s 14 matches have had an Italian Serie A-high average of 3.57 goals and Cagliari is second on that particular chart with its games averaging 3.29 goals. One meant it when one wrote entertaining.

Over two and a half goals will interest many punters but one feels that, especially with Parma at home, backing both the host and Cagliari is the punting route down which to trek. As awful as Parma has been in the first 14 Italian Serie A rounds it has scored in six of its seven home matches and one is confident that Cagliari will carve out opportunities for it to get on the scoresheet for the sixth time in its eight divisional away games. Zdenek Zeman is not going to send out a cautious Cagliari team given Parma’s profile.

Tips Summary

Lazio to beat Atalanta
13th December 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -167
Where to Bet: Bwin, William Hill

Fiorentina to beat Cesena
14th December 17:00 GMT
Odds:  -175
Where to Bet: Boylesports, Ladbrokes

Parma v Cagliari BTTS
14th December 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -154
Where to Bet: Ladbrokes

Serie A
William Hill

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