Atalanta has been the surprise packet of the Italian Serie A season and one rates it as the best bet on the card in the 16th round of matches as it hosts Udinese on Sunday.
Ten rungs separate Atalanta and Udinese on the Italian Serie A ladder, with the Goddess occupying fifth position, level with Lazio and Napoli in 28 points. Udinese is 15th in the Italian Serie A standings but the Little Zebras are not in serious relegation trouble because Crotone, Palermo and Pescara are at least 12 points adrift of them.
That Udinese is not in the Italian Serie A relegation mix owes a lot to its results against the teams below it on the ladder. Udinese is 4-0-0 in its four Italian Serie A games against sides ranked 16th to 20th inclusive but the Little Zebras are 1-3-7 versus teams placed above themselves.
Atalanta had won seven matches on the bounce across all competitions until it lost 1-3 at Juventus last time out but there was no shame in losing at the defending Italian Serie A champion that is so difficult to turn in Turin.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Atalanta and Udinese have had 12 common opponents and the Goddess boasts a 8-1-3 edge over the Little Zebras. Atalanta is trading at odds of 4/51.80-1250.80-1.250.80 with Marathonbet and, all things considered, the Goddess appear a bit over their true odds.
One thinks the same applies to Bologna, which is available at odds of 23/202.15+1151.151.15-0.87 with BetVictor and William Hill to get the better of Empoli in another Italian Serie A game scheduled for Sunday. The Italian Serie A ladder suggests that there is little to choose between Bologna and Empoli – they are on adjacent rungs after 15 rounds – but one’s collateral form analysis tells a very different tale.
Bologna and Empoli have had 12 common Italian Serie A foes and one’s collateral form number crunching says that the Red and Blues enjoy a 7-2-3 advantage over the Blues. You do not get that from the Italian Serie A ladder, do you? Moreover, Empoli’s two Italian Serie A victories have come at the expense of 18th-ranked Crotone and cellar dweller Pescara, whereas Bologna has beaten a couple of sides higher than itself. There is considerably more depth to Bologna’s Italian Serie A form than that of Empoli and yet bookmakers are betting as though the teams are almost identical.
Sunday’s derby between Torino and Juventus is one of the Italian Serie A highlights this weekend and over two and a half goals is attractively offered at odds of 11/102.10+1101.101.10-0.91 by Paddy Power, a price that flies in the face of various statistics.
Eleven of Torino’s 15 Italian Serie A matches have gone over two and a half goals, including six of its seven divisional home games. The only Torino home match in Italian Serie A that has gone under two and a half goals was September’s visit of Empoli when neither side could break the deadlock.
Juventus has played 15 Italian Serie A games and 12 of them have gone over two and a half goals, including four of its seven divisional away matches. Juventus has an excellent head-to-head against Torino but the Old Lady are not as solid as they have been in recent seasons and the Maroons blast Italian Serie A’s third most productive attack. This fixture last season resulted in a 4-1 win for Juventus.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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