Chievo is in one’s good books after beating Carpi 1-0 in the 32nd round of Italian Serie A games and one likes the idea of supporting the Flying Donkeys at Udinese on Sunday.
To put it bluntly one cannot understand how bookmakers have come to the conclusion that Udinese should be odds on to get the better of Chievo, with the only evidence supporting that view being November’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture that resulted in a 3-2 away win for the Little Zebras. Udinese is positioned 16th on the Italian Serie A ladder, seven rungs and 10 points below a Chievo team that has won each of its last three matches, albeit against weak opponents. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Udinese trails Chievo 4-3-12 so the Flying Donkeys have performed better than the Little Zebras versus almost two-thirds of the division. Do you want to back Udinese at odds on?
Chievo is an impressive 6-0-3 in its nine Italian Serie A away games against sides below it on the ladder and so one could not dissuade you from backing the Flying Donkeys at odds of +375 with BetVictor. However, one thinks that the best value lies in betting on Chievo not losing at Udinese, an option that is available at odds of -110 with several bookmakers, including BoyleSports and Ladbrokes.
No Italian Serie A team has scored fewer home goals than Udinese so one is convinced that, regardless of the final outcome, dutching Chievo and the draw is an obvious value play, the like of which are key to successful punting.
Palermo is imploding and the last Italian Serie A side that one wants to face in such circumstances is Juventus in its Turin backyard. That is Palermo’s Italian Serie A task on Sunday and one believes that the Old Lady are worth backing at odds of -200 with Ladbrokes to register a home win over the Eagles by more than a one-goal margin.
Juventus took out November’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture 3-0 and, while the Old Lady netted two of their goals after the 88th minute, they were backing up from a midweek UEFA Champions League Group D home match against Manchester City so to win so emphatically in the end was a terrific effort. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus enjoys a 17-0-2 advantage over Palermo, with the Old Lady having outperformed the Eagles 15-0-0 if one excludes the bottom four teams on the ladder.
Roma is occupying Italian Serie A’s third and final UEFA Champions League qualification berth with six rounds to go and it would love three points from its trip to 14th-placed Atalanta on Sunday. One thinks that Roma has an excellent chance of avenging its 0-2 Italian Serie A home loss that Atalanta inflicted when the Wolves were horrendously out of form in November and that they are attractively priced at odds of -125 with Betfred, BetVictor and Totesport.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Roma boasts a 15-1-3 edge over Atalanta despite the Wolves winning just one league game out of the nine that it played from late November to late January. Two Atalanta players – Luca Cigarini and Marten de Roon – are ineligible to line up in midfield versus Roma due to their one-match suspensions.
Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 33’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Bologna 9-2-8* versus Torino
Carpi 5*-4-10 versus Genoa
Internazionale 3-2-14* versus Napoli
Atalanta 3*-1-15 versus Roma
Fiorentina 11*-1-7 versus Sassuolo
Juventus 17*-0-2 versus Palermo
Udinese 4*-3-12 versus Chievo
Verona 10-0-9 versus Frosinone
Lazio 8-2-9* versus Empoli
Sampdoria 5-4-10* versus Milan
Chievo or Draw Double Chance
Sunday 17th April, 14:00 GMT
Juventus -1 to beat Palermo
Sunday 17th April, 14:00 GMT
Roma to beat Atalanta
Sunday 17th April, 11:30 GMT