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Lazio to Win High-Scoring Duel for Champions League Spot

May 18, 2018

Lazio take on Inter in Serie A on Sunday.

Lazio versus Internazionale is the game of the final Italian Serie A round because it will decide which side accompanies Juventus, Napoli and Roma in next season’s UEFA Champions League, with the Black and Blues needing an away win to leapfrog the White and Sky Blues into fourth position.

And there is a fight within a fight as well because the Italian Serie A golden boot race is down to two players – Lazio striker Ciro Immobile and Internazionale forward Mauro Icardi, with the former leading the latter by one goal.

According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Lazio is slightly superior to Internazionale and, therefore, the White and Sky Blues are overpriced to get the better of the Black and Blues. Lazio’s Italian Serie A collateral form advantage over Internazionale is 10-2-7 but bookmakers are betting as though the White and Sky Blues are marginally weaker than the Black and Blues but playing on home soil.


However, one is not satisfied with simply backing Lazio to beat Internazionale on Sunday. One thinks that the Italian Serie A curtain closer has the distinct potential to be a high-scoring affair because if Internazionale breaks the deadlock then Lazio will have to chase the match and if the White and Sky Blues opening the scoring then the Black and Blues will have to chase even harder given the state of the ladder following 37 rounds of action. A Lazio win without a clean sheet is available at 31/10  with 888Sport and it rates as the best bet on what is a difficult Italian Serie A program.

A goals-based wager appeals in the Italian Serie A game between second-ranked Napoli and relegation-threatened Crotone on Sunday. Crotone is in a world of hurt in the Italian Serie A drop zone and, realistically, it needs to apply pressure to Napoli from the opening whistle if it is going to change the relegation narrative and turn up the heat on SPAL, Cagliari, Chievo and Udinese. Consequently, the bet on which one is keen is both teams to score at odds of 4/7  with Betway.

Napoli’s Italian Serie A fate is sealed but surely it will not want to end its runner-up campaign with a goalless whimper. Napoli is averaged more than two goals per Italian Serie A match and Crotone’s defence has kept just five clean sheets in the league, only one of them on the road. Crotone has scored in each of its last five Italian Serie A games and it has faced both Juventus and Lazio in that period.

For one’s third and final Italian Serie A pick one is going to turn a blind eye to one’s collateral form numbers for once and select Milan to beat Fiorentina on Sunday at odds of 5/6  with BetVictor.

Milan will avoid having to compete in the preliminary stage of the UEFA Europa League if it gets the better of Fiorentina – qualifying for the group stage is hugely important to sides in Italian Serie A because it means that they do not have to compromise their domestic preparations. Fiorentina is out of UEFA Europa League contention and the Purples have two players suspended this weekend. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Milan is slightly inferior to Fiorentina but, all things considered, the Red and Blacks represent fair value at their odds.

Tips Summary

Lazio to beat Inter & both teams to score
Sunday 20th May, 19:45 BST
Odds: 31/10

Napoli v Crotone – both teams to score
Sunday 20th May, 17:00 BST
Odds: 4/7

AC Milan to beat Fiorentina
Sunday 20th May, 17:00 BST
Odds: 5/6

  • AC Milan
  • Crotone
  • Lazio
  • Napoli

    About the author

    Eric Roberts
    Eric Roberts

    Sports Journalist

    Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.