The last five Spanish Primera Division rounds have seen Las Palmas thrash Getafe 4-0 at home, register 1-0 wins at both Eibar and Villarreal and go down by the odd goal in three to both Barcelona and Real Madrid on the Canary Islands. Las Palmas is 15th on the Spanish Primera Division ladder after 29 rounds but one would be surprised if the Yellows ended up in a full-blown relegation scrap because one’s form analysis suggests that they are better than the standings suggest.
One believes that collateral form analysis is the key to identifying football teams that are overpriced to take out games. According to one’s unedited Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Sociedad enjoys a 9-2-8 lead over Las Palmas, a result that supports La Real being five points and five rungs above the Yellows on the ladder. However, one thinks that there is more to the Sociedad versus Las Palmas story than meets the eye, so much so that bookmakers are taking a huge risk in quoting the Yellows at odds of +500 .
Las Palmas is a live outsider at odds of +500 with Betfair, Betfred and Ladbrokes to win its Spanish Primera Division match against Sociedad on Saturday as it strives to continue its good recent form.
First, there is one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis when one only counts matches featuring the league’s top sides. For example, Las Palmas boasts Spanish Primera Division edges over Sociedad of 3-1-0 and 7-2-2 when one just analyses games including teams ranked in the top four and the top 11 respectively. To cut a long story short, Las Palmas has outperformed Sociedad on a regular basis when the sides have come up against the league’s strongest teams.
Second, Las Palmas scored either side of half time to beat Sociedad 2-0 in November’s reverse Spanish Primera Division fixture on the Canary Islands. Jonathan Viera in the 28th minute and Sergio Araujo in the 51th minute netted for Las Palmas to end what had been a five-match winless streak.
And third, Las Palmas eliminated Sociedad from the Spanish Copa del Rey at the last-32 stage. Las Palmas came from behind to defeat Sociedad 2-1 on the Canary Islands and the Yellows qualified for the last 16 of the Spanish Copa del Rey by drawing 1-1 in San Sebastian to win 3-2 overall.
One could have taken issue with Sociedad trading at odds of around the -167 mark to beat Las Palmas simply by pointing to the Spanish Primera Division ladder. The gap between Sociedad and Las Palmas is insufficient for La Real to be that deep into odds-on territory for three Spanish Primera Division home points and the case against the hosts gets weaker when one digs deeper into this season’s form book.
At what odds should Las Palmas be trading to win Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division game at Sociedad? Well, one can make a strong case for Las Palmas being at least on par with Sociedad and that would entitle the Yellows to be trading at odds of around the +225 mark as the visitors. Clearly win odds of +500 are an insult to Las Palmas and its ability.
Las Palmas to beat Real Sociedad
Saturday 19th March, 17:15 GMT
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