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Ladder Lies Lead to Bookmakers Underrating Malaga
Eric Roberts 2015-10-22 in Football Tips
There is a considerable gap between Malaga and Deportivo on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but one thinks that the fixture list is responsible for the difference and that the former represents good value to beat the latter on Saturday.
The ladder does not lie at the end of a 38-round season but it can play tricks less than one-quarter of the way into a competition because, particularly in a league such as the Spanish Primera Division that is top heavy with the likes of Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid, one team’s early schedule may be much more demanding than that of a rival.
Malaga has collected six points from its first eight Spanish Primera Division games but the Anchovies have hosted Eibar, Sevilla, Sociedad and Villarreal and visited Barcelona, Getafe, Real Madrid and Valencia. In summary, Malaga has faced all the Spanish Primera Division’s big guns except Atletico Madrid, including three of them on the road.
Deportivo is seven points and 11 rungs above Malaga on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but its program over the opening eight rounds – Athletic, Espanyol, Gijon and Sociedad at home, Betis, Granada, Valencia and Vallecano away – has been as soft as it could get. Deportivo has yet to play a side ranked in the Spanish Primera Division top seven, with most of its opponents on the middle of the ladder. Things are going to get tougher for Deportivo between now and Christmas and one would not be at all surprised if Malaga overtook it before the end of 2015.
Marathonbet is offering odds of 67/502.34+1341.341.34-0.75 about Malaga defeating Deportivo in Saturday’s Spanish Primera Division match. Malaga and Deportivo clashed four times across various competitions last season and the Anchovies were unbeaten with two wins and two draws, plus this term’s collateral form lines are split down the middle at one apiece. One thinks that Malaga should be trading at odds of 23/202.15+1151.151.15-0.87.
The ninth round of Spanish Primera Division games will kick off with Vallecano versus Espanyol on Friday and one thinks that there is a case for backing over two and a half goals between the minnows of Madrid and Barcelona respectively.
The Spanish Primera Division matches of both Vallecano and Espanyol are averaging more than three goals, with five of the former’s eight games going over two and a half goals and six of the latter’s eight encounters exceeding that line.
Neither Vallecano nor Espanyol can defend for toffee – both teams have conceded a Spanish Primera Division-high 17 goals – and three of their last four meetings have gone over two and a half goals, with the exception being last term’s 1-1 league draw in Barcelona. The weakest part of one’s argument for backing over two and a half goals in Friday’s match is Vallecano’s attack but Rayo ought to fancy its chance of contributing to the total considering that Espanyol has not kept a clean sheet in its last six competitive road games.
Boylesports are listing odds of 83/1001.83-1200.83-1.200.83 about Vallecano and Espanyol going over two and a half goals in Friday’s Spanish Primera Division round opener. That is a worthwhile wager and so is under two and a half goals in Sunday’s match between Atletico Madrid and Valencia, an option that is available at odds 18/251.72-1390.72-1.390.72 with Marathon.
Atletico Madrid and Valencia are ranked fourth and eighth respectively on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but it is a different story when it comes to the goals-per-game chart, with the former positioned 17th and the latter two places lower. Atletico’s eight Spanish Primera Division matches have had an average of 2.00 goals and six of them have gone under two and a half goals. Valencia’s eight Spanish Primera Division matches have had an average of 1.50 goals and six of them have gone under two and a half goals.
Four of the last five head-to-head duels between Atletico Madrid and Valencia have gone under two and a half goals, with the exception being last term’s Spanish Primera Division game at Valencia that saw four goals scored in the first 29 minutes and none scored in the rest of the match.
Malaga to beat Deportivo
24th October 21:00 GMT
Vallecano v Espanyol – Over 2.5 goals
23th October 19:30 GMT
Atletico Madrid v Valencia – Under 2.5 goals
25th October 19:30 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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