Ladder Is Being Unkind to Frankfurt and Hertha

Hannover 96 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt

According to the German Bundesliga ladder, there is little to separate Frankfurt and Darmstadt but we beg to differ based on our exhaustive collateral form analysis.

Ladders do not tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth at this point of competitions and one would struggle to find a better example of that than Sunday’s encounter between 13th-placed Frankfurt and 12th-placed Darmstadt. Frankfurt and Darmstadt have faced 11 common German Bundesliga opponents and, rating home advantage as being worth half a goal, Armin Veh’s team has a 9-2 lead over Dirk Schuster’s side going into their clash.

Frankfurt versus Darmstadt is the type of German Bundesliga game that most punters will overlook because neither team is in red-hot form – the former has earned two points, both in 0-0 draws, from its last four divisional matches, while the latter has taken two points out of a possible 15 since it won 2-0 at Augsburg in October. But scratch beneath the surface and one finds that the German Bundesliga ladder is misleading and that Frankfurt’s efforts are worthy of much more praise than those of Darmstadt. Marathonbet is offering odds of -105 that Frankfurt beats Darmstadt and leapfrogs its guest in the German Bundesliga rankings. One expects Frankfurt to start shorter once the world’s data-driven punters get stuck into the weekend’s football markets.

Another German Bundesliga game that appeals as a result of one’s collateral form analysis is Saturday’s match between another two sides occupying adjacent ladder positions – fifth-placed Hertha and sixth-placed Leverkusen.

Bookmakers have installed Leverkusen as the clear favourite and that does not make sense on at least a couple of levels. First, Hertha and Leverkusen have played against 11 of the same German Bundesliga teams and those collateral form lines favour the former 9-2 when one factors in that it will be the home side this weekend. And second, Leverkusen has the distraction of a critically important UEFA Champions League Group E date with Barcelona early next week. Leverkusen must better Roma’s result – the Italian Serie A team will tackle BATE, which is not out of the hunt itself – so one suspects that the Roger Schmidt-coached side’s only hope of reaching the UEFA Champions League knockout stage is to defeat Barcelona and rely upon BATE holding Roma to a draw.

Hertha, at least relative to Leverkusen, is entitled to a lot more respect from bookmakers than it is receiving. One can make a very good value case for backing Hertha at odds of +292 with Marathonbet – the Berlin-based team ought to be around the price at which Leverkusen is trading.

Finally, one is surprised that sister bookmakers 888Sport and Unibet are quoting odds of -164 about Sunday’s German Bundesliga game between Stuttgart and Bremen going over two and a half goals. One cannot see many punters wanting to bet on the low-scoring alternative option.

Stuttgart’s 14 German Bundesliga matches have had an average of 3.79 goals and 11 of them have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 that have exceeded three and a half goals. Bremen’s 14 German Bundesliga games have been fun to watch as well, with 10 of them going over two and a half goals and an overall mean of exactly 3.00 goals.

Last season’s corresponding German Bundesliga fixture ended in a 3-2 success for Stuttgart over Bremen in spite of the home side having one fewer player on the field when Daniel Ginczek netted the winning goal in the 90th minute. Neither Stuttgart nor Bremen has changed its spots since then so everything points to a open match in which attacks hold the upper hand over defences. One was expecting two and a half goals to be available at odds of around the -200 mark.

Tips Summary

Frankfurt to beat Darmstadt
6th December 16:30 GMT
Odds: -105

Hertha to beat Leverkusen
5th December 14:30 GMT
Odds: +292

Stuttgart v Bremen Over 2.5 goals
6th December 14:30 GMT
Odds: -164


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