Keep the faith in fundamentally fine Dortmund


One does not think that Bon Jovi had Dortmund in mind when it recorded Keep The Faith but one is singing to that song sheet for the 14th round of German Bundesliga matches.

More than one-third of the way into the German Bundesliga season and Dortmund, last term’s runner-up, is anchored at the bottom of the ladder. Dortmund has lost eight of its 13 German Bundesliga games, one more than it lost in the whole of last season’s championship race. But one thinks that the fundamentals are there and that Dortmund will turn the corner before it ends up in a real relegation scrap.

For example, Dortmund has fired off the third highest number of shots in the German Bundesliga and it has allowed the third fewest number of shots on its own goal, while only all-conquering Bayern Munchen has superior for and against corner-kick statistics. Dortmund qualified for the UEFA Champions League knockout stage with two matches to spare and bad teams simply do not do that. The law of averages says that Dortmund is going to go on a positive run soon because the majority of its key performance indicators indicate that it is in a false position domestically.

Dortmund’s German Bundesliga opponent at home on Friday is seventh-placed Hoffenheim, which has conceded at least three goals in each of its last four league games, losing three of those matches. Hoffenheim’s six German Bundesliga road trips have resulted in one win (16th-placed Stuttgart), three draws (10th-placed Mainz, 14th-placed Bremen and 17th-placed Hamburg) and two losses (first-placed Bayern Munchen) and fifth-placed Monchengladbach) so, if Dortmund produces a performance of a top-six side – which is what one thinks that it is – then a home win should be the end result.

Bwin’s odds of -175  may not appear generous about the German Bundesliga cellar dweller winning at home to the team ranked 13 places higher but one is keeping the faith in Dortmund.

Next on one’s German Bundesliga punting program is under two and a half goals in the game between Koln and Augsburg, both of which has the same under-two-and-a-half-goals numbers.

Koln’s 13 German Bundesliga matches have had an average of 2.38 goals, with eight of those games going under two and a half goals. The very same statistics apply to Augsburg’s 13 German Bundesliga matches. Augsburg is in false position on the German Bundesliga ladder – it has enjoyed a relatively soft schedule, particularly at home – so one is not keen on betting on the result of the game itself given the odds.

Drilling deep into Koln’s and Augsburg’s statistics and one finds that four of Koln’s six German Bundesliga home matches have gone under two and a half goals, six of Augsburg’s seven German Bundesliga home matches have gone under two and a half goals and none of those 13 matches has featured more than three goals. Bwin is offering odds of -139  about under two and a half goals so snap up them.

Finally, some notes regarding the German Bundesliga derby between Hannover and Wolfsburg for which the latter is odds on to claim three points. First, Hannover has won each of its last five German Bundesliga games versus Wolfsburg, including four of them by two-goal-plus margins. Also, remember that Wolfsburg does not keep all that many clean sheets. Second, there have been a large number of red cards in this German Bundesliga argument recently, particularly in clashes played in Hannover. So either skip the German Bundesliga match from a betting perspective or see what bookmakers offer in terms of odds about a sending off.

Update – Both 888sport and Unibet offering +345  for a sending off in the game.

Tips Summary

Dortmund to beat Hoffenheim
5th December 19:30 GMT
Odds:  -175
Where to Bet: Bwin

Koln v Augsburg Under 2.5 goals
6th December 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -139
Where to Bet: Bwin

Hannover v Wolfsburg Red Card
6th December 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +345
Where to Bet: 888sport, Unibet


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