Keep an Eagle Eye on Overpriced Crystal Palace

stoke 1-2 palace

Crystal Palace’s home form is not the hottest in the English Premier League but one thinks that bookmakers have chalked up sufficiently long odds about the Eagles beating Swansea at Selhurst Park to make them the value bet of the round.

An English Premier League home record of 4-1-4 is the major reason why bookmakers are willing to take on Crystal Palace against Swansea and one acknowledges that Monday’s home team is better suited to playing away from Selhurst Park. But the odds-against prices available about Crystal Palace snaffling three English Premier League home points versus a Swansea side that is 1-2-5 on its travels are too big to ignore.

The English Premier League matches from Monday to Wednesday comprise the 19th round of games after which every team will have faced every other side once. Crystal Palace and Swansea have had 18 common English Premier League opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Eagles hold a 12-1-5 lead over the Swans, more than justifying the large gap between them on the ladder. Even factoring in Crystal Palace’s relatively poor English Premier League home results – the Eagles have earned four more points on the road than they have collected at Selhurst Park – there is no way that one can have them at odds against to defeat Swansea. Snap up BetVictor’s odds of +115 about a Crystal Palace victory.

Everton and Stoke are level on 26 English Premier League points but, if one’s collateral form analysis is on the money, the Toffees are a stronger team than the Potters. Everton and Stoke have had 18 common English Premier League foes and the results of those 36 matches see the Toffees enjoying a 10-4-4 collateral form edge over the Potters.

Again, Monday’s English Premier League games looks like one in which bookmakers are willing to lay a home side that has not pulled up any trees in front of its own supporters. One is not excusing Everton’s disappointing English Premier League home numbers of 3-3-3 but one’s emotionless number crunching points to the Toffees being a fair bit superior to Stoke and, therefore, the available odds of +105 with PaddyPower appear somewhat generous.

Just three points separate West Bromwich and Newcastle on the English Premier League ladder but one’s collateral form analysis suggests that there is more value to the results of the Baggies than those of the Magpies. West Bromwich and Newcastle have had 18 common English Premier League rivals and the Baggies hold a 11-2-5 collateral form advantage over the Magpies, which is the third biggest edge in the 19th round after Crystal Palace (12-1-5) and Arsenal (12-2-4).

One acknowledges that West Bromwich is not the sexiest of English Premier League teams and that it is averaging fewer than one goal per divisional match. However, one cannot see how Marathonbet has come up with its odds of +127 about West Bromwich beating Newcastle at The Hawthorns and putting itself six points clear of the English Premier League relegation zone at the halfway point of the competition.

Finally, one could have made an English Premier League collateral form case for Manchester United (10-3-5) over Chelsea but the Red Devils are impossible to back off the back of their latest dreadful performance, while Manchester City is nothing more than fairly priced to win at Leicester – one’s collateral form analysis supports the view of the bookmaking fraternity that the Citizens are vastly superior to the Foxes in spite of what the ladder says currently.

Tips Summary

Crystal Palace to beat Swansea
28th December 15:00 GMT
Odds: +115

Everton to beat Stoke
28th December 15:00 GMT
Odds: +105

West Brom to beat Newcastle
28th December 15:00 GMT
Odds: +127

Crystal Palace
Premier League
West Bromwich

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