Juventus, Sassuolo and Sampdoria are the best bets


One thinks that Italian Serie A leader Juventus is a banker bet in the 20th round of games and that a team on the bottom half of the ladder represents excellent value not to lose.

Every Italian Serie A side has faced each other following 19 rounds of matches and this is the time of a season at which collateral form analysis is worth its weight in gold, either confirming the state of the ladder or calling its positions into question. As far as the Italian Serie A game between Juventus and Chievo goes, the ladder is telling the truth.

Juventus is 16 places and 28 points ahead of Chievo at the halfway stage of the Italian Serie A term and one’s view is that 17 of the 18 collateral form lines featuring the teams favour Juve, with the other one favouring neither side – this is based on handicapping home advantage as being worth half a goal. Juventus kicked off its Italian Serie A title defence with a 1-0 victory at Chievo so one should be safe to steam into Juve at odds of -588  with Bet365 and Bwin to beat Chievo at the Juventus Stadium in Turin.

An Italian Serie A team that is not such an obvious betting pick is Sassuolo, which is over the odds at -137  with Bet365 not to lose its away match versus Cagliari. Gianfranco Zola has had four games in the Cagliari hot seat since succeeding Zdenek Zeman and the Islanders have not shown any real signs of improvement under their former superstar player. Cagliari and Sassuolo have had 18 common Italian Serie A opponents and one’s view is that 12 of those collateral form lines favour the Black and Greens, who are a match for any of their top-flight rivals when their key players click.

Sassuolo has lost just one of its last 13 Italian Serie A games – 1-2 at Palermo, an assignment that Cagliari failed 0-5 in Zola’s first match at its helm – and the reverse fixture resulted in a 1-1 draw. Bookmakers are betting on the game as though Cagliari is as good as Sassuolo and one can find little empirical data to support that perspective.

Finally regarding Italian Serie A match betting, Sampdoria is attractively priced at odds of +110  with many bookmakers, including Betfred and PaddyPower, to strengthen its bid for a top-three finish with a home win over Palermo.

Odds against about a Sampdoria victory is generous in light of one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis. Sampdoria and Palermo have had 18 common Italian Serie A opponents and one’s view is that only three of those collateral form lines favour the Pink and Blacks, who have been hyped out of all proportion. Maybe it is because of Palermo’s pink shirts.

With regards to Italian Serie A exotics, one is most keen on taking odds that Atalanta gets more card points than Verona in their bottom-of-the-ladder six pointer. Atalanta is one of Italian Serie A’s worst behaved sides, averaging 32.89 cards points overall and 31.00 cards points on its travels. Verona’s Italian Serie A card points averages are 27.63 overall and 26.67 in front of its home supporters.

Tips Summary

Juventus to beat Chievo
25th January 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -588
Where to Bet: Bet365, Bwin

Sassuolo to beat Cagliari
24th January 17:00 GMT
Odds:  -137
Where to Bet: Bet365

Sampdoria to beat Palermo
25th January 14:00 GMT
Odds:  +110
Where to Bet: BetfredPaddyPower

Gianfranco Zola
Serie A
Zdenek Zeman

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