Italian Serie A rivalries do not get much bigger than the one between Juventus and Milan and the Easter blockbuster throws up the best bet of the holiday round of fixtures.
Juventus and Milan have met 165 times in Italian Serie A with Juve leading the Red and Blacks 62 wins to 50 and 53 draws. In the circumstances, Juventus is very attractively priced to register its 63rd league victory over Milan when they clash in the final match on Easter Saturday.
The stakes are huge for Juventus, which leads the Italian Serie A title race by two points from Napoli but nine rounds remaining but, on paper, has a slightly tougher run in than its championship rival. Juventus, which boasts a positive Italian Serie A head to head against Napoli, which may come into play once the 38 rounds have been completed, is five rungs and 25 points above Milan on the ladder and October’s reverse fixture ended 2-0 in favour of Juve thanks to Gonzalo Higuain’s goals midway through each half.
According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Juventus has owned Milan throughout the campaign. Juventus enjoys a 15-2-1 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Milan, with Juve performing better than the Red and Blacks versus every other team except fourth-ranked Internazionale (equal), eighth-ranked Sampdoria (equal), 16th-ranked SPAL (worse) and 20th-ranked Benevento (equal). There is serious depth to the Italian Serie A form of Juventus, which has conceded a goal against either second-ranked Napoli or third-ranked Roma. Milan, on the other hand, is 2-0-5 in its seven Italian Serie A games versus higher-ranked sides, losing three of those matches by multiple-goal margins.
Juventus has, across all competitions, won each of its last three games against Milan and the Red and Blacks have not triumphed in Juve’s stadium since March 2011. The early odds of -152 with Jetbull about Juventus beating Milan this weekend are big given the relative strengths and weaknesses of the teams.
There is a clear and outstanding value case for backing the away side, Sampdoria, at odds of +250 with BetVictor in its Italian Serie A match versus Chievo on Easter Saturday. The betting on this Italian Serie A game does not tally with either the ladder or one’s collateral form analysis; it is quite extraordinary.
Sampdoria is eighth on the Italian Serie A ladder, eight rungs and 19 points better off than Chievo, which is under pressure to retain its top-flight membership. According to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form, Sampdoria boasts a 13-1-5 advantage over Chievo and, if one digs a little bit deeper, one finds that Samp has outshone the Flying Donkeys against eight of the top nine teams, including winning the reverse fixture by a 4-1 margin five months ago.
Chievo, which will be happy to be back on home soil after three Italian Serie A road matches on the bounce, has won just one of its 16 league games versus sides ranked in the top 11 and that was a 2-1 home victory over Fiorentina in October. Yes, Sampdoria is coming off the back of not one but two Italian Serie A thumpings so keep your stakes to a sensible level but there is no doubt that Samp should be vying with Chievo for favouritism on their travels.
Roma is one’s third and final Italian Serie A pick, with the Yellow and Reds expected to take care of business away to Bologna in the opening match of the round at a best price of -137 with BetVictor. Internazionale, Lazio and Napoli should accrue three Italian Serie A points from their games against Verona, Benevento and Sassuolo respectively but Roma are at tempting odds to complete an Italian Serie A double over Bologna after a 1-0 home success for the Yellow and Reds in October’s reverse fixture.
Roma holds a 14-0-5 Italian Serie A collateral form lead over Bologna and the Yellow and Reds are 5-3-0 in their last eight clashes with the Red and Blues, all in the league.
Below are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form figures for each of the 10 matches scheduled for Easter Saturday.
Juventus to beat AC Milan
Saturday 31st March, 19:45 GMT
Sampdoria to beat Chievo
Saturday 31st March, 19:45 GMT
Roma to beat Bologna
Saturday 31st March, 11:30 GMT