Juve got to back the leader at Sassuolo

tevezJuventus defeated Sassuolo 4-0 in round 16 of the Italian Serie A and there is nothing wrong with backing Juve to overcome the relegation candidate in the reverse fixture.

Many football punters do not like backing teams at odds on away from home but this is Juventus against Sassuolo about which one is talking. Juve did not beat Sassuolo in Turin four months ago; it smashed Sassuolo. Juve led 3-0 at the half-time interval and, even though it put its cue in the rack and cruised through the second period, Carlos Tevez completed his hat-trick before the final whistle blew.

Juventus could clinch its 30th Italian championship this weekend. To do that it would need to end the 35th round 10 or more points ahead of Roma. The gap between the Italian Serie A title rivals is eight points currently so it would require Juve beating Sassuolo and Roma, which hosts Milan three days earlier, failing to register a home victory.

According to the betting markets, there is about a 45 per cent chance that the Italian Serie A match between Sassuolo and Juventus will kick off with Juve being able to secure the championship with three away points. If that ends up being the situation then Juve will not available at such long odds as those of 1.44 that BetVictor is offering.

Juventus has won 29 of its 34 Italian Serie A games, with its slip ups being road draws versus Internazionale, Lazio and Verona and away losses to Fiorentina and Napoli. So, Juve has won all its Italian Serie A matches against sides below the fold, so to speak. Sassuolo has won seven of its 34 Italian Serie A games, with its victories coming at the expense of Atalanta (twice), Bologna, Catania, Chievo, Milan and Sampdoria. Only one of those teams – Milan – is ranked in Italian Serie A’s top 10. Moreover, Sassuolo has picked up just two points from its 10 Italian Serie A matches in which it has faced sides ranked in the top half a dozen.

Torino versus Udinese is a largely inconsequential Italian Serie A game but eighth-placed Torino does look overpriced at odds of 1.95 with Ladbrokes to beat 13th-placed Udinese.

For starters, Torino won the reverse Italian Serie A fixture 2-0 in December thanks to goals from Alexander Farnerud and Ciro Immobile. That is always a good starting point for a bet on a home team towards the end of a campaign.

Torino has won three Italian Serie A home matches in a row, albeit games that it was entitled to win. Udinese has had a tough run of matches in recent weeks so one is willing not to place too much emphasis on its record of one Italian Serie A point from its last three games. But one is not willing to overlook Udinese’s poor away numbers, which include two draws and four losses since mid February.

Finally in what is a difficult Italian Serie A to round to find value bets, back both Roma and Milan to score in their Friday night fight between the division’s two form sides.

Both Roma and Milan boast Italian Serie A winning streaks of at least five matches. Roma has the best home and overall defensive record in Italian Serie A – eight goals leaked at home and 19 goals conceded in total – but Milan is one of the league’s highest away scorers and most of its games under Clarence Seedorf have been entertaining affairs.

Milan has found the back of the net in each of its last four games across all competitions and its scoring statistics are eight road matches out of nine if one goes back to the turn of the year. Milan does have the defensive fortitude to hold Roma at bay for 90 minutes in the capital city so one likes the suggested play at odds of 1.75 with Ladbrokes.

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