The Italian Serie A season really kicks into full swing on Saturday and it is that day’s three games that deserve the most attention from punters betting on the weekend round.
The best bet is that Internazionale will defeat Cagliari comfortably in Milan as the Black and Blues bid to post their fourth consecutive victory across all competitions.
Only time will tell if Internazionale’s early dropped points versus Sassuolo, Torino and, most embarrassingly, Parma will prevent it winning the Italian Serie A title but the Black and Blues probably should be unbeaten in the league based on their performances, albeit with a 2-4-0 record rather than the 3-1-2 one. According to expected goals and expected points data, Internazionale deserves to be where it is on the Italian Serie A ladder but it should have got there by an alternative route. Internazionale’s defence rates as one of Italian Serie A’s best and that is one of the reasons why one is tipping the Black and Blues to post a win to nil over low-scoring Cagliari when the Red and Blues face them.
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Cagliari is 16th on the Italian Serie A ladder and it is lucky to be that well positioned. Cagliari’s expected goals data has been lower than each of its opponents in its six Italian Serie A matches and it is not as though the Red and Blues have had the toughest of starts, lining up against Empoli, Sassuolo, Atalanta, Milan, Parma and Sampdoria. Internazionale presents Cagliari with its stiffest Italian Serie A examination this term and one expects the Red and Blues, who have scored their expected number of goals but conceded three fewer times than expected, to fail it.
Longer odds are available about Internazionale beating Cagliari to nil at +310 with 188Bet than by more than one goal so one thinks punters looking for an Italian Serie A wager should be backing the Black and Blues to win with a clean sheet.
One reserves betting on draws for special occasions because it is so much easier to build an argument for backing sides to win. However, one thinks there is value is wagering on Saturday’s blockbusters – Roma versus Lazio and Juventus against Napoli – ending all square at attractive odds of +240 with 888Sport and +260 with Black Type respectively.
Roma is the nominal home team for Saturday’s Italian Serie A derby but Lazio is higher on the ladder following six rounds of action. That said, according to expected points, Roma is marginally ahead of Lazio so one suspects there is little to choose between the Rome rivals even though the Yellow and Reds have four fewer Italian Serie A points than the White and Sky Blues. The draw is the clear outsider of the three possible outcomes and, while understands why it is almost impossible for the draw to be shorter odds than both the home win and the away win, one thinks it represents value.
Juventus boasts a genuine home advantage over Napoli in their Italian Serie A showdown but one thinks the White and Blacks are too short in the betting to record a home win over the Partenopei. Napoli has let in seven Italian Serie A goals but, according to expected goals, the Partenopei’s defence ranks as the division’s tightest and they have been unfortunate to concede more than one goal per game.
Each of last season’s Italian Serie A matches between Juventus and Napoli were won by the visiting side and one thinks the latter will be more competitive versus the former than the market suggests with the home team at odds on.
Internazionale to win to nil versus Cagliari
Saturday 29th September, 19:30 BST
Draw in Roma versus Lazio
Saturday 29th September, 14:00 BST
Draw in Juventus versus Napoli
Saturday 29th September, 17:00 BST