Iceland Unlikely to Freeze out English on French Riviera

2016-06-26

Kazakhstan, Finland and Liechtenstein are the only three teams that Iceland has frozen out in its last 15 games so England has nothing to fear from its opponent in the UEFA Euro 2016 last 16 match on the French riviera on Monday.

England fans are dirty on Roy Hodgson for resting more than half of his regular starters for their team’s UEFA Euro 2016 Group B finale against Slovakia, the 0-0 draw resulting in the English missing out on top spot in the section and a place in the clearly weaker half of the knockout phase.

But Iceland should not prevent England reaching the last eight of UEFA Euro 2016. Iceland did not really win any of its three UEFA Euro 2016 Group F games because it drew 1-1 versus Portugal and Hungary and it was heading for another 1-1 draw against Austria until it converted a three-on-one opportunity in injury time as the Austrians surged forward in search of the victory that it required. Iceland’s form since it qualified for UEFA Euro 2016 has been ordinary to say the least, with the Icelanders defeating just Finland, Greece, Liechtenstein and Austria in their last 15 matches.

One understands why bookmakers such as BoyleSports and Marathonbet are listing England at odds of 11/20 1.55 -182 0.55 -1.82 0.55  to get the better of Iceland in normal time. With regards to a bet at odds against, one thinks that England may fill its boots, particularly if it opens the scoring in the opening period. England to go over one and a half goals is available at odds of 1/1 2.00 +100 1.00 1.00 -1.00  with several bookmakers, including Betfred, Coral and William Hill, while Marathonbet is quoting odds of 17/5 4.40 +340 3.40 3.40 -0.29  about over two and a half goals for the English. If one had to nominate one of those wagers, it would be over one and a half goals at odds of 1/1 2.00 +100 1.00 1.00 -1.00 . England has gone over one and a half goals in 10 of its last 13 competitive games, while one cited Iceland’s defensive deficiencies in comments above.

Italy versus Spain is the marquee match of the UEFA Euro 2016 last 16 but one suspects that it may be light on for goals. Bookmakers are of the same opinion and they are listing short odds about under two and a half goals.

The hunt for an odds-against bet in the game of the UEFA Euro 2016 round led one to dutching a couple of scores – Spain 1-0 at odds of 19/4 5.75 +475 4.75 4.75 -0.21  with BetVictor and Spain 2-0 at odds of 8/1 9.00 +800 8.00 8.00 -0.13  with many bookmakers, including BetVictor, BoyleSports and William Hill. Dutching Spain 1-0 and Spain 2-0 produces a wager at odds of approximately 251/100 3.51 +251 2.51 2.51 -0.40 .

No side completed more passes than Spain (1,876) in the UEFA Euro 2016 group stage and the Spaniards were impressive in their Group D wins over the Czech Republic and Turkey before losing 1-2 to Croatia in a match in which Sergio Ramos missed a 72nd-minute penalty kick when the score was 1-1.

Italy, which ranked 12th for completed passes in the UEFA Euro 2016 group stage on 1,019, did a number of Belgium in Group E before making hard work of putting Sweden to the sword. One is not reading anything into Italy’s 0-1 loss to Ireland because the Blues rested most of their star men.

The consensus is that Italy versus Spain will be low scoring and tight and one thinks that there is a strong argument for the Spaniards being superior to the Italians. Spain’s weight of possession may end up being the difference between the teams and, because neither side looks full of goals, the dutched score play on the Spaniards makes fair appeal.

Tips Summary

England v Iceland – England Goals Over 1.5
Monday 27th June, 20:00 GMT
Odds:  1/1 2.00 +100 1.00 1.00 -1.00

Dutch Spain to Win 1-0 and 2-0
Monday 27th June, 17:00 GMT
Odds:  251/100 3.51 +251 2.51 2.51 -0.40