Watford is positioned above Liverpool on the English Premier League ladder after 16 rounds and deservedly so, according to one’s collateral form analysis that suggests that the Hornets are overpriced to sting the Reds on Sunday.
It is fairly easy to work out whether the English Premier League ladder is a fair reflection of a team’s talent in comparison to its upcoming opponent. One thinks that home advantage in the English Premier League is worth half a goal and, from that, it is possible to rate the value of each result. Watford and Liverpool have had 14 common English Premier League opponents and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, only two of those lines favour the Reds, with six favouring the Hornets and six ties. Bookmakers are asking punters to take roughly even money about Liverpool winning at Watford on Sunday. Can Liverpool leave Vicarage Road with three English Premier League points? Certainly but Liverpool should not even be the match favourite, let alone odds on in places. The market is an insult to Watford.
The highest ranked of the English Premier League newcomers, Watford has climbed on to the top half of the ladder after posting consecutive wins over Aston Villa, Norwich and Sunderland – the current bottom three. One does not want to back Watford to beat Liverpool because the reality is that that the Hornets have not defeated a side placed higher than eighth on the ladder and the Reds, reinvigorated by Jurgen Klopp, are a top-six team in the making. Thankfully, odds of -116 are available with 888Sport and Unibet about Watford either winning or drawing Sunday’s English Premier League game, odds that fly in the face of one’s collateral form analysis. Move the ties over to Watford’s side of the ledger and the Hornets have a 12-2 English Premier League edge over Liverpool. Watford double chance is the value.
Newcastle is not the kind of team on which you would want to bet your life but the Magpies are in better shape than Aston Villa and they make one’s English Premier League cut at odds of +105 with William Hill because one has to be interested in any side trading at odds against to beat the Villans.
Aston Villa has not won an English Premier League match since triumphing 1-0 at Bournemouth on the opening day of the season, with the Villans registering only one subsequent victory in normal time across all competitions – a 1-0 home win over Birmingham. Newcastle and Aston Villa have had 14 common English Premier League opponents and one’s collateral form analysis favours the Magpies over the Villans – six ticks for Newcastle, five ticks for Aston Villa and three ties. One was expecting Newcastle to trade at odds of around -111 so one is willing to back the Magpies at the +105 mark.
One thinks that, apart from definitely Watford and probably Newcastle, bookmakers have done a fine job in pricing up the 17th round of English Premier League games. One’s final pick is under two and a half goals in Saturday’s English Premier League match between Stoke and Crystal Palace, an option that is trading at odds of -149 with Marathonbet.
Stoke’s 16 English Premier League games have had an average of just 1.69 goals, which is the division’s lowest. Thirteen of Stoke’s 16 English Premier League matches have gone under two and a half goals, five of its seven home games. Crystal Palace’s 16 English Premier League matches have had an average of only 2.25 goals – the division’s fourth lowest – and nine Eagles games have gone under two and a half goals, including four of their seven trips away from Selhurst Park.
Watford to win/draw v Liverpool
20th December 13:30 GMT
Newcastle to beat Aston Villa
19th December 17:30 GMT
Stoke v Crystal Palace Under 2.5 goals
19th December 15:00 GMT
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