Home in on Roma Versus Serie A’s Bottom Team


Handicap markets are what appeal most on the Italian Serie A coupon for the 20th round of matches, with the pick of the bets being Roma minus one goal on Asian handicap lines.

Roma will entertain Italian Serie A cellar dweller Verona on Sunday and, if you back the Yellow and Reds minus one goal in Asian handicap betting, you will win if they beat the Yellow and Blues by two or more goals, you will break even if they beat the Yellow and Blues by one goal and you will lose if they fail to beat the Yellow and Blues. Simple.

One’s conducts detailed collateral form analysis for every Italian Serie A game at this stage of the competition and, according to one’s number crunching, Roma’s edge over Verona is the most clear cut of the round’s 10 matches. Roma and Verona have faced each of the other Italian Serie A teams, with the Yellow and Reds enjoying a 14-3-2 advantage over the Yellow and Blues, including a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in which the sides scored in a six-minute window.

Roma’s 6-2-1 Italian Serie A home record is the second best in the division behind that of ladder-leading Napoli (7-2-0) based on points per game and, in the event of a tie, goal difference. Roma had something of an excuse for losing 0-2 at home to Atalanta because the Yellow and Reds had a man dismissed in an incident that led to their guests receiving a penalty kick that they converted in the 82nd minute. In the UEFA Champions League, Roma’s three Group E home matches resulted in a home victory over Leverkusen and draws with Barcelona and BATE. Roma is a strong home performer.

Verona is 0-8-11 in Italian Serie A – including 0-4-5 on the road – and six points adrift at the foot of the ladder and 11 points short of safety. Verona has welcomed back Luca Toni in recent weeks but the presence of last term’s top goal scorer has not enabled the Yellow and Blues to break their Italian Serie A duck. Indeed, Verona’s last Italian Serie A game resulted in a 0-1 home loss to 16th-placed Palermo. Now that is what one calls relegation form.

BetVictor is offering odds of -156 about Roma minus one goal in Asian handicap betting for its Italian Serie A match against Verona and that option appeals more than either the Yellow and Reds to win by any score at odds on or them to win by more than one goal at odds against. One cannot see Roma failing to defeat Verona and any triumph for the Yellow and Reds would result in, at worst, a push in punting.

Bookmakers are betting on Saturday’s Italian Serie A games at Napoli and Torino as though the home sides are vastly superior to their respective opponents, Sassuolo and Frosinone. One’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis does not agree with the assessments of odds compilers.

Napoli boasts a 9-4-5 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Sassuolo and that is insufficient for bookmakers to be quoting the leader at odds of around -333 . And, remember, Napoli lost 1-2 at Sassuolo in the first round of Italian Serie A matches. Sassuolo plus two goals in traditional handicap betting is available at odds of +110 with Bwin.

Torino is entitled to favouritism for its Italian Serie A game versus Frosinone but one thinks that bookmakers are joking in listing the Maroons at odds of around -333 . Torino holds a 10-3-5 Italian Serie A collateral form edge over Frosinone so it should be odds on to collect three points but bookmakers have gone too far in their love for a team that is, after all, positioned 14th on the ladder. Coral is offering odds of +105 about Frosinone plus two goals in traditional handicap betting and that feels incorrect.

Fiorentina burnt one’s fingers in the last Italian Serie A round otherwise one would have been tempted to include the Purples as a handicap bet for their Sunday game at Milan.

Tips Summary

Roma -1 to beat Verona (Asian HC)
17th January 14:00 GMT
Odds: -156

Sassuolo +2 goals to beat Napoli
16th January 19:45 GMT
Odds: +110

Frosinone +2 to beat Torino
16th January 17:00 GMT
Odds: +105

Serie A

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