Augsburg took 13 points from its last five German Bundesliga games before the competition’s winter break but one does not agree with the relatively short odds available about Markus Weinzierl’s team winning at high-flying Hertha on Saturday.
The trip to Hertha will be Augsburg’s toughest assignment in any tournament since it lost 0-2 at home to Dortmund in the German DFB-Pokal in the middle of December and one cannot get carried away with the Bavarian side’s German Bundesliga results from late November onwards in spite of its points tally. During that period Augsburg did not face any of the German Bundesliga’s top five teams and it met its two toughest opponents – Schalke and Wolfsburg – at home.
Hertha was the surprise packet of the first half of the German Bundesliga season, posting a record of 10-2-5 to occupy third position on the ladder – six points adrift of Dortmund but three points ahead of Monchengladbach. The straightforward nature of the German Bundesliga draw means that every side played each other before the teams had four weeks off and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, Hertha enjoys a 11-3-3 lead over Augsburg, including a 1-0 away win in the reverse fixture – one notes, though, that Pal Dardai’s outfit scored from the penalty spot shortly after Markus Weinzierl’s charges went down to 10 men.
William Hill are listing odds of +125 about Hertha beating Augsburg and that does not make sense. Odds of +125 about a German Bundesliga home side implies that they are slightly worse than its guest yet Hertha is third on the ladder, nine rungs and 13 points in front of Augsburg. One’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis supports the ladder and it does not hurt Hertha’s case that it took out the reverse fixture as well. Hertha should be odds on to defeat Augsburg at home so the German Bundesliga winter bronze medallist (who we tipped to finish in the top 4) rates as one’s best bet on the card as the competition gets back under way.
Sunday’s German Bundesliga match between Monchengladbach and Dortmund is the highlight of Round 18 and one likes a couple of bets in the clash between fourth and second – over two and a half goals and the Foals not to lose to their guests.
Monchengladbach and Dortmund were the kings of over two and a half goals in the first 17 rounds of the German Bundesliga tournament – 14 Foals games went over the popular line and 15 BVB matches exceeded it, including their reverse fixture. Marathonbet is quoting odds of -175 about two and a half goals and one cannot see that price lasting until kick-off time.
Nor can one see Monchengladbach remaining odds against to avoid defeat in its German Bundesliga blockbuster versus Dortmund – 888Sport and Unibet are offering +125 , which is remarkable even allowing for the fact that BVB thrashed the Foals 4-0 in August. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Dortmund boasts a 8-4-5 edge over Monchengladbach so, with BVB hitting the road, one would argue that the game should be very close to pick ’em.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 18’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Hamburg 2-2-13* versus Bayern Munchen
Koln 8*-2-7 versus Stuttgart
Hannover 7*-3-7 versus Darmstadt
Hertha 11*-3-3 versus Augsburg
Hoffenheim 5-2-10* versus Leverkusen
Ingolstadt 6*-4-7 versus Mainz
Monchengladbach 5-4-8* versus Dortmund
Frankfurt 6-0-11* versus Wolfsburg
Schalke 9*-2-6 versus Bremen
Hertha to beat Augsburg
23rd January 14:30 GMT
Monchengladbach v Dortmund Over 2.5 goals
23rd January 17:30 GMT
Monchengladbach to win/draw Dortmund
23rd January 17:30 GMT
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