Hertha to Keep Beating up on the Stragglers


Huub Stevens has a tough job on his hands to keep Hoffenheim in the German Bundesliga and one expects the task facing him to get even harder following Sunday’s match against Hertha.

Hoffenheim underwent major transformations during the German Bundesliga close season and the Kraichgauer have fared badly since the competition kicked off, winning only one of their first 12 league games and collecting just eight points to sit one rung off the foot of the ladder. Hoffenheim sacked Marcus Gisdol last month and the reign of Stevens has begun with a couple of goalless draws, first away to Koln and second at home to Frankfurt. Hoffenheim has not scored a goal in any of its last three German Bundesliga matches.

Hertha has been one of the German Bundesliga’s few surprise packets this term, residing in the division’s fourth UEFA Champions League berth before the international break with a record of six wins, two draws and four losses. One questions Hertha’s position on the German Bundesliga ladder because it has lost to second-placed Dortmund, third-placed Wolfsburg, fifth-placed Schalke and sixth-placed Monchengladbach – it is yet to play Bayern Munchen – but the Old Lady have faced eight identical opponents to Hoffenheim and one’s collateral form analysis favours them by five to two with one tie.

The phenomenon commonly known as the new manager syndrome does not appear to be making much difference to Hoffenheim so one is going to list Hertha as one’s best bet of the 13th German Bundesliga round. Sister bookmakers 888Sport and Unibet are quoting odds of +115 about a Hertha victory.

Darmstadt did not lose to Ingolstadt in German 2. Bundesliga last season and one thinks that the Lilies are overpriced to derive something positive from Sunday’s game between the two newcomers to the top flight. Bet365 is listing odds of -120 about either a Darmstadt win or a sharing of the spoils.

Ingolstadt and Darmstadt have played eight common German Bundesliga opponents, with one’s collateral form analysis favouring the Schanzer four to three with one tie. That is not a big difference and then there is Ingolstadt’s issue with scoring goals to consider. Ingolstadt has netted only seven goals in its 12 German Bundesliga matches and it is incredible that such a low-scoring side has accrued 16 points. Certainly one does not want to back Ingolstadt to beat any German Bundesliga team at relatively short odds.

For the record, each of the last four clashes between Ingolstadt and Darmstadt have resulted in a 2-2 draw. So punters who believe in following quirky trends will be able to have bet at long odds about a fifth straight 2-2 draw. However, backing Darmstadt not to lose makes more sense.

Finally, Hamburg versus Dortmund will kick off the German Bundesliga round on Friday and one likes the idea of betting on under 10 and a half corner kicks once Bet365 throw up their exotic markets.

All bar one of Hamburg’s five German Bundesliga home games have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks and that was due to Frankfurt having 11 corners of their own in September. Nine of Hamburg’s 12 German Bundesliga matches have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks and only Bremen has had fewer corners – HSV are on 44 and Werder are on 43.

All bar one of Dortmund’s 12 German Bundesliga games have gone under 10 and a half corner kicks, with the exception to the rule being its match at Mainz last month in which there were 12. Only Bayern Munchen has given up fewer corner kicks than Dortmund – BVB are on 35 and Bayern are on 25.

Tips Summary

Hertha to beat Hoffenheim
22nd November 14:30 GMT
Odds: +115

Darmstadt to win/draw v Ingolstadt
22nd November 16:30 GMT
Odds: -120

Hamburg v Dortmund Under 10.5 corners
20th November 19:30 GMT
Odds: TBC

Huub Stevens

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