Hertha to Beat Visiting False Favourite Wolfsburg

Hertha Berlin beat Wolfsburg on their last visit.

Hertha has a full week to prepare for its German Bundesliga home game against Wolfsburg and one cannot make a case for the Wolves being favourites away to the capital club.

Wolfsburg’s German Bundesliga away record of 1-2-6 is the worst in the competition and the Wolves are 0-0-4 on the road to teams above it on the ladder. Wolfsburg, which had not won any of its previous seven German Bundesliga matches before defeating promoted Ingolstadt 2-0 at home last weekend, has to back up after its UEFA Champions League assignment versus Gent in Belgium on Wednesday. Wolfsburg deserved to rack up a UEFA Champions League first-leg lead over Gent – the Wolves led 3-0 after 60 minutes – but one is unwilling to say that it has turned the corner on the road because its midweek opponent traded as the clear underdog.

Unlike Wolfsburg, Hertha does not have any international distractions because last season it survived relegation from the German Bundesliga by the narrowest of margins and it did not make it past the second round of the German DFB-Pokal in a truly miserable campaign. Hertha has been one of the major surprise packets of the German Bundesliga this time round, occupying fourth place on the ladder with a 10-5-6 record.

According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral analysis, Hertha is good value for its five-point lead over Wolfsburg on the ladder. Hertha enjoys a 12-2-3 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Wolfsburg, with the only knock being that the Wolves won September’s reverse fixture 2-0 through a late Bas Dost brace. One’s German Bundesliga collateral form figure suggest that Hertha’s position relative to that of Wolfsburg is fair and there is huge difference between the former’s home numbers and the away statistics of the latter. Hertha is 6-3-1 in its 10 German Bundesliga home matches, including earning four points from its games versus higher ranked Dortmund and Leverkusen.

Bet365, Betfred and Totesport are offering odds of +188  about Hertha getting the better of the German Bundesliga’s worst away performer. The German Bundesliga’s fourth-placed side should not be trading as the underdog this weekend.

Stuttgart is the German Bundesliga’s hottest team – the Reds boast six-game form figures that are even better than those of Bayern Munchen – but it has not enough over a longer period of time to warrant such respect from bookmakers.

There is not a great deal of depth to Stuttgart’s recent results, which include five consecutive German Bundesliga victories, and the fact remains that the Reds are below their Sunday host, Schalke, on the ladder. And deservedly so. Schalke holds a 10-2-5 German Bundesliga collateral form advantage over Stuttgart, the Royal Blues won September’s reverse fixture 1-0 and the Reds have the leakiest road defence in the competition. Marathonbet is quoting Schalke at odds of +122  when, even accounting for the Royal Blues being three-day turnaround from their UEFA Europa League match at Shakhtar Donetsk, they should be no longer than +110 .

Sunday’s game between Leverkusen and Dortmund is the match of the round and one is in the latter’s camp at odds of +120  with Marathonbet. The UEFA Europa League draw was kinder to Dortmund than Leverkusen – at least with regards to Sunday’s German Bundesliga clash – and one’s collateral form analysis suggests that, when it really matters, BVB are better than Bayer. Dortmund enjoys a marginal 8-2-7 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Leverkusen but BVB leads Bayer 7-0-2 in games featuring the division’s top 10 sides. The first German Bundesliga meeting of Dortmund and Leverkusen was a one-sided affair that ended in a 3-0 win for BVB.

Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 22’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.

Frankfurt 8*-1-8 versus Hamburg
Bayern Munchen 14*0-3 versus Darmstadt
Monchengladbach 9-2-6* versus Koln
Hertha 12-2-3* versus Wolfsburg
Hoffenheim 6-3-8* versus Mainz
Ingolstadt 8*-3-8 versus Bremen
Leverkusen 7-2-8* versus Dortmund
Schalke 10*-2-5 versus Stuttgart
Hannover 7-3-7* versus Augsburg

Tips Summary

Hertha Berlin to beat Wolfsburg
Saturday 20th February, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +188

Schalke to beat Stuttgart
Sunday 21st February, 16:30 GMT
Odds:  +122

Borussia Dortmund to beat Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday 21st February, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  +120

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