Three consecutive German Bundesliga victories have lifted Stuttgart away from the relegation zone but one does not agree with its odds about beating Hertha on Saturday.
Bookmakers have priced up Saturday’s German Bundesliga match between Stuttgart and Hertha as though the 12th-placed home team is equal to the third-placed away side and that does not make much sense, with the odds-compiling fraternity getting carried away with the team on the bottom half of the ladder’s recent run of divisional wins. One should note that Stuttgart’s back-to-back-to-back German Bundesliga victories have come against sides ranked ninth, 13th and 15th so it is not as though it has been defeating the league’s top teams.
According to one’s unemotional German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Stuttgart trails Hertha by a whopping 2-2-13 and September’s reverse fixture resulted in a 1-2 away loss for the Reds. Earlier this week, Stuttgart lost 1-3 at home to Dortmund in the German DFB-Pokal quarter-finals – BVB had drawn 0-0 at Hertha in the previous German Bundesliga round.
Sister bookmakers 888Sport and Unibet are offering odds of 77/1001.77-1300.77-1.300.77 that Stuttgart does not beat Hertha and that strikes one as a fair bet. One is willing to accept that Stuttgart has improved since Jurgen Kramny stepped up to succeed Alexander Zorniger in late November. But one is unwilling to accept that Stuttgart is on a par with Hertha given that 11 points separate the sides on the German Bundesliga ladder and one’s collateral form analysis supports the league standings. For example, Hertha has outshone Stuttgart in their respective German Bundesliga games versus the teams ranked in the top five positions.
Bayern Munchen is head and shoulders above most of its German Bundesliga opponents and odds of 83/1001.83-1200.83-1.200.83 with PaddyPower about it defeating state rival Augsburg by more than one goal on Sunday appeals as a decent punting vehicle.
Augsburg’s German Bundesliga home record is not flash as it has beaten just bottom-of-the-ladder Hannover and Schalke, with its 2-1 victory over the latter courtesy of a goal in stoppage time. Both Darmstadt and Hoffenheim have managed to defeat Augsburg by more than one goal on their German Bundesliga travels and Bayern Munchen’s latest visit to its Bavaria neighbour resulted in a 4-0 away triumph, all the goals coming in a 14-minute spell after the interval.
Bayern Munchen enjoys a 14-2-1 German Bundesliga collateral form lead over Augsburg, including a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture. Stuttgart is the only team against which Augsburg has outperformed Bayern Munchen in the German Bundesliga – the Fuggerstadter posted a 4-0 road victory, whereas the defending champion registered a 4-0 home success.
Huub Stevens has resigned from his position as Hoffenheim coach due to health reasons – a heart condition to be more specific – but one is willing to risk a bet on the side that he has left behind not losing at Bremen on Saturday in what is a classic German Bundesliga relegation six-pointer.
Bremen’s German Bundesliga home record of 1-2-6 is the worst in the competition and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, there is an argument for Hoffenheim being a tiny bit superior to its weekend host. Hoffenheim boasts a 9-3-5 German Bundesliga collateral form advantage over Bremen and, while the reverse fixture resulted in a 1-3 home loss for the former, the score was 1-1 entering the 90th minute.
Betfair are offering odds of 7/101.70-1430.70-1.430.70 that Hoffenheim avoids defeat at Bremen and that play rounds out one’s German Bundesliga portfolio for the round.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 21’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Mainz 8*-0-9 versus Schalke
Darmstadt 5*-0-12 versus Leverkusen
Dortmund 12*-1-4 versus Hannover
Stuttgart 2-2-13* versus Hertha
Bremen 5*-3-9 versus Hoffenheim
Wolfsburg 8*-1-8 versus Ingolstadt
Koln 6-4-7* versus Frankfurt
Hamburg 6*-2-9 versus Monchengladbach
Augsburg 1-2-14* versus Bayern Munchen
Hertha to win/draw v Stuttgart
13th February 14:30 GMT
Bayern Munchen -1 to beat Augsburg
14th February 16:30 GMT
Hoffenheim to win/draw v Bremen
13th February 14:30 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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