Hellas to Mark Toni’s Final Game with a Goal

Luca Toni is set to retire at the end of the season.

One cannot recall a less appetising Italian Serie A round from a punting perspective with relegated Verona to score versus champion Juventus being the best bet available.

There are three reasons why one has chosen to nominate over zero and a half Verona goals:

First, Juventus has four players banned for Sunday’s Italian Serie A match – Hernanes, Paul Pogba, Stephan Lichtsteiner and Mario Mandzukic – plus the Old Lady have another five players unavailable due to injury. Second, Juventus is counting down the days until it faces Milan in the Italian Coppa Italia final because it is 12 points clear of Napoli with just two Italian Serie A rounds remaining. And third, Verona striker Luca Toni has confirmed that he will retire after lining up against his former club this weekend.

Over 0.5 Verona goals is an option that is trading at odds of -167  with Betfair, BoyleSports and Coral, as the most interesting wager on the Italian Serie A card.

One cannot bring oneself to pick Verona to beat Juventus – after all, according to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, Hellas trail the Old Lady 0-1-18 – but one can make a case for Juventus not being 100 per cent and Verona marking Toni’s final appearance with a goal.

For those of you unfamiliar with Toni, he won the 2006 FIFA World Cup with Italy and last season he became the oldest player to finish an Italian Serie A season as its leading goal scorer. Bet365 is offering odds of +240  that Toni hits the back of the net versus Juventus and that may prove to be a popular Italian Serie A exotic bet, although one prefers backing any Verona player to breach the Old Lady’s defence.

Fiorentina is close to qualifying for the UEFA Europa League but it is not quite a done deal so the Purples strike one as being overpriced to get the better of Palermo on Sunday in an Italian Serie A game that has a lot riding on it.

Palermo occupies one of Italian Serie A’s three relegation spots, although it does have the luxury of a home match versus bottom-of-the-ladder Verona to come next weekend. What is important for Palermo is that it kicks off the final round of Italian Serie A games higher than the 18th position in which it resides currently, thereby putting its destiny in its own hands. Palermo must better Carpi’s result this weekend to ascend the Italian Serie A ladder unless the Eagles win and Udinese suffers a heavy defeat at Atalanta.

Marathonbet is quoting odds of -106  about a Fiorentina win over Palermo and that is too big given that, according to one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis, the Purples lead the Eagles 14-0-5, including a 3-1 away triumph in January’s reverse fixture – Josip Ilicic bagged a brace.

There is a case for backing under two and a half goals in Saturday’s Italian Serie A game between Internazionale and Empoli at the odds of +165  with 888Sport and Unibet.

Twenty-two of Internazionale’s 36 Italian Serie A matches have gone under two and a half goals, including 10 of its 18 away games. And 22 of Empoli’s 36 Italian Serie A matches have gone under two and a half goals, including 11 of its 18 away games. Furthermore, January’s reverse Italian Serie A fixture resulted in a 1-0 away victory for Internazionale.

Finally, here are one’s Italian Serie A collateral form analysis results for each of Round 37’s 10 matches. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Internazionale 11*-0-8 versus Empoli
Bologna 6*-1-12 versus Milan
Roma 13*-1-5 versus Chievo
Atalanta 10-1-8* versus Udinese
Carpi 5*-1-13 versus Lazio
Fiorentina 14*-0-5 versus Palermo
Frosinone 5*-0-14 versus Sassuolo
Sampdoria 6*-4-9 versus Genoa
Torino 2-3-14* versus Napoli
Verona 0-1-18* versus Juventus

Tips Summary

Verona v Juventus – Over 0.5 Verona Goals
Sunday 8th May, 19:45 GMT
Odds:  -167

Fiorentina to beat Palermo
Sunday 8th May, 14:00 GMT
Odds:  -106

Inter v Empoli – Under 2.5 Goals
Saturday 7th May, 17:00 GMT
Odds:  +165

Empoli
Fiorentina
Inter Milan
Juventus
Luca Toni
Serie A
verona

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