Round 24 of the German Bundesliga is one in which there is a case for backing each of the nine home teams because, when the reverse fixtures took place in September, the matches resulted in five away victories and four draws.
One is going to take a punt on one of the two home underdogs in the German Bundesliga’s 24th round, picking Hannover at long odds to beat Wolfsburg in Tuesday’s HDI-Arena derby.
Collateral form analysis is what leads one to rate Hannover as worthy of a speculative wager to get the better of its local rival. Hannover is bottom of the German Bundesliga ladder after 23 rounds so it is not earth shattering that the Reds trail Wolfsburg 7-1-9 on one’s collateral form analysis. But Hannover has outperformed Wolfsburg 7-1-4 in matches featuring the German Bundesliga’s top 12 teams and the Wolves have the division’s second worst away record.
Marathonbet is offering the lengthy odds of 69/204.45+3453.453.45-0.29 that Hannover defeats Wolfsburg and posts back-to-back German Bundesliga wins for the first time this term. Home draws are unlikely to save Hannover from relegation to Germany’s second tier and, therefore, one is confident that the Reds will take risks against Wolfsburg and go for all three points. The recent history of the German Bundesliga encounter favours Hannover – the Reds have won five and drawn two of their last eight clashes versus their Volkswagen-owned rivals.
German Bundesliga goals punters will be queuing up to bet on Tuesday’s game between Ingolstadt and Koln going under two and a half goals. An incredible 19 of Ingolstadt’s 23 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals, including eight of its 11 home games. Fourteen of Koln’s 23 German Bundesliga matches have gone under two and a half goals, including six of its 11 away games. The reverse German Bundesliga fixture resulted in a 1-1 draw despite Koln and Ingolstadt scoring in the opening 21 minutes.
Bookmakers are doing their best to duck bets on under two and a half goals between Ingolstadt and Koln but the offers of 53/1001.53-1890.53-1.890.53 with several firms, including BoyleSports, are too big to ignore. Ingolstadt and Koln rank 18th and 17th respectively for goals per German Bundesliga match, with the former averaging 1.78 and the latter’s mean 2.30.
One’s third German Bundesliga pick is third-placed Hertha to earn a win against 15th-placed Frankfurt on Wednesday. The odds of 17/201.85-1180.85-1.180.85 that BetVictor and Marathonbet are offering are over the top given the significant gap between the sides. Hertha boasts a 12-1-4 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Frankfurt, with the numbers getting even prettier for Pal Dardai’s team as one excludes games featuring the division’s low-ranking sides – for example, the Blues and Whites lead the Eagles 5-0-1 and 9-0-2 on other measures.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 24’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Hannover 7*-1-9 versus Wolfsburg Ingolstadt 8*-2-7 versus Koln Bayern Munchen 14*-1-2 versus Mainz Schalke 10*-0-7 versus Hamburg Leverkusen 9*-3-5 versus Bremen Monchengladbach 7*-4-6 versus Stuttgart Hertha 12*-1-4 versus Frankfurt Hoffenheim 6*-3-9 versus Augsburg Darmstadt 3*-2-12 versus Dortmund
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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