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Hamburg Overpriced to Complete Double Over Ingolstadt
Eric Roberts 2016-02-24 in Football Tips
Ingolstadt has performed remarkably well in its first German Bundesliga campaign but one thinks that it is in a false ladder position and that the only way is down for it.
Bookmakers are betting on Saturday’s German Bundesliga match between Hamburg and Ingolstadt as though the Red Shorts are markedly inferior to the Schanzer and that is not something with which one can agree. William Hill is offering odds of 8/52.60+1601.601.60-0.63 that Hamburg beats Ingolstadt and that is too big to turn down when one assessed the Red Shorts at about 11/102.10+1101.101.10-0.91.
The German Bundesliga kicked off with Ingolstadt as the wooden spoon favourite so the Schanzer are punching above their weight, occupying 10th place on the ladder after 22 rounds and sitting nine points clear of the relegation zone. Ingolstadt has an 8-5-9 German Bundesliga record but it has scored just 16 goals, including only five on the road, and it accrued 19 of its 29 points versus bottom-half teams. Seventh-placed Mainz is the only side ranked in the German Bundesliga’s top half that Ingolstadt has beaten and the Schanzer have lost each of their five divisional games against Bayern Munchen, Dortmund, Hertha and Leverkusen without scoring a goal and conceding a total of 10.
Consequently, one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis favours Hamburg over Ingolstadt. Hamburg enjoys a 9-0-8 German Bundesliga collateral form lead over Ingolstadt and September’s reverse fixture resulted in a 1-0 away win for the Red Shorts thanks to Michael Gregoritisch’s effort three minutes before the end. Hamburg has had a few good days at the office in the German Bundesliga – the Red Shorts defeated Dortmund 3-1 at home and Monchengladbach 3-0 on the road – and its best is better than Ingolstadt’s best.
Hamburg may not be a popular German Bundesliga selection but one’s other picks – Bayern Munchen to win at Wolfsburg on Saturday and Dortmund to beat Hoffenheim by more than one goal on Sunday – are sure to be on millions of coupons.
Believe it or not, some bookmakers rated Wolfsburg as the biggest threat to Bayern Munchen in the German Bundesliga before the competition got under way – one suggested that Dortmund represented outstanding value in betting without the champion. Wolfsburg has been the flop of the German Bundesliga and its divisional results do not stack up at all well alongside those of Bayern Munchen. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Wolfsburg trails Bayern Munchen 1-2-14 and the only side against which the Wolves have outperformed Bayern is 16th-ranked Bremen.
Hoffenheim’s German Bundesliga away record is the second worst in the division – it is inferior to Wolfsburg’s on goal difference – and it is difficult to see anything other than a big loss for the Kraichgauer at Dortmund. Hoffenheim has lost each of its six German Bundesliga road matches at top-eight team, losing three of them by multiple goals. Dortmund boasts an impressive 9-1-0 German Bundesliga home record, scoring at least two goals in all bar one of those games and registering seven victories by multiple goals. One likes the idea of backing Dortmund minus one and a half goals at odds of 29/501.58-1720.58-1.720.58 with 888Sport and Unibet.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 23’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Koln 7-0-10* versus Hertha
Wolfsburg 1-2-14* versus Bayern Munchen
Hamburg 9*-0-8 versus Ingolstadt
Stuttgart 9*-0-8 versus Hannover
Bremen 5-3-9* versus Darmstadt
Augsburg 6-0-11* versus Monchengladbach
Dortmund 14*-1-2 versus Hoffenheim
Mainz 5-2-10* versus Leverkusen
Frankfurt 3-5-9* versus Schalke
Hamburg to beat Ingolstadt
27th February 14:30 GMT
Bayern to beat Wolfsburg
27th February 14:30 GMT
Dortmund +1 to beat Hoffenheim
28th February 16:30 GMT
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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