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Hamburg head to head hard to ignore

March 11, 2014

Pierre-Michel LasoggaHamburg‘s most impressive result of its German Bundesliga campaign came versus Nurnberg in October and the Red Shorts are attractively priced to do the double over The Club.

Pierre-Michel Lasogga bagged a second-half hat-trick – only 19 minutes elapsed between his first goal and his third one – as Hamburg romped to a 5-0 win at Nurnberg. Hamburg has high hopes that Lasogga, who is on loan from Hertha Berlin, will be fit to line up against the German Bundesliga team which he tormented five months ago after he withdrew from Germany’s squad that played Chile a week and a half ago.

No-one is pretending that Hamburg is a great side but the Red Shorts have lifted since they changed managers last month, Mirko Slomka replacing Bert van Marwijk, and the head-to-head record sticks out like a sore thumb. Hamburg is available at odds of 2.25 with Boylesports and Unibet, odds that imply that the Red Shorts are slightly inferior to Nurnberg if one does not factor in the venue. The German Bundesliga ladder would support that viewpoint but Hamburg thrashed Nurnberg in the reverse fixture and that form line has to worth quite a bit. Fair odds for Hamburg would be around 2.10 so 2.25 is over the top.

German Bundesliga cellar dweller Braunschweig defeated Wolfsburg 2-0 on the road in the eight round of matches, Karim Bellarabi and Dominick Kumbela scoring its goals. On Saturday, Braunschweig gets the opportunity to complete the double over a Wolfsburg side that has kept only one clean sheet in its last 10 games and enters the derby having conceded six goals in each of its last two matches.

All things considered, Wolfsburg represents appalling value at odds of 1.95 with BetVictor and Coral. One may baulk at backing Braunschweig to win – it has been victorious in just four of its 24 German Bundesliga games – but surely there is a good case for backing the home team not to lose. Bwin is offering inviting odds of 1.95 that the German Bundesliga match ends in either a Braunschweig victory or a draw.

The strongest argument against the suggested bet is that Braunschweig’s attack is the least productive in the German Bundesliga and, therefore, the home side may not be best equipped to take advantage of Wolfsburg’s frailties. That said, Braunschweig did win the reverse German Bundesliga fixture comfortably and the match odds are out of whack.

Finally, the German Bundesliga game between Frankfurt and Freiberg appeals as an under-two-and-a-half-goals match, particularly as one can bet on the option at odds of 1.95 with 888sport and Unibet. There are many statistics that support betting on the clash being low scoring.

Frankfurt and Freiburg are 15th and 16th respectively on the German Bundesliga goals-per-game ladder, with the matches of both teams averaging 2.79 goals. Twelve of Frankfurt’s 24 German Bundesliga games have gone under two and a half goals and 11 of Freiburg’s 24 German Bundesliga matches have done likewise, while the sides drew 1-1 when they met in October and Frankfurt’s goal on that occasion was an own goal.

The clincher for the bet is Freiburg’s recent scoring record on the road in the German Bundesliga. Freiburg has not hit the back of the net away from home since getting the better of Braunschweig 1-0 in November. Freiburg has gone 488 minutes without scoring a German Bundesliga road goal.

The German Bundesliga is a competition that favours punters who bet on over two and a half goals – 131 of this season’s games have gone over the popular total, which is slightly higher than 60 per cent – but Frankfurt versus Freiburg is the type of match that is likely to buck the general trend.

About the author

Eric Roberts
Eric Roberts

Sports Journalist

Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.