Goals and a Carvajal Card in a Shock Liverpool Win

Liverpool and Real Madrid compete in the Champions League Final.

Liverpool and Real Madrid compete in the Champions League Final.

The UEFA Champions League final between Real Madrid and Liverpool has the makings of a thrill-a-minute match in which there are lots of goals and, perhaps, a shock result.

Unsurprisingly, bookmakers have installed Real Madrid as the UEFA Champions League final because the Meringues have been there, seen it, done it and got the t-shirt – they have won 12 European Cup/UEFA Champions League titles, including each of the last two finals. Liverpool, on the other hand, has won five European Cup/UEFA Champions League titles and none since 2005 and the so-called Miracle of Istanbul.

It is quite remarkable that Real Madrid and Liverpool have reached the UEFA Champions League final because their form in the Spanish Primera Division and the English Premier League respectively has been disappointing. Real Madrid failed to win any of its Spanish Primera Division home matches against fellow top-six sides and the Meringues were 2-5-3 against them regardless of venue. Meanwhile, in the English Premier League, Liverpool lost on the road to each of its fellow top-five teams and the Reds were a combined 3-7-4 versus the division’s eight highest-ranked sides. Barcelona and Manchester City were the cream of the Spanish Primera Division and the English Premier League this season but they fell victim to the perils of knockout competition.

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It is fun to bet on goals being scored and that is the way that one wants to play in the UEFA Champions League final. In their respective domestic leagues, 18 of Real Madrid’s 38 Spanish Primera Division games and 16 of Liverpool’s 38 English Premier League matches went over three and a half goals. In the UEFA Champions League, seven of Real Madrid’s 12 games and eight of Liverpool’s 14 matches have gone over three and a half goals – lower the bar to over two and a half goals and the Meringues are 11-1 and the Reds are 12-2. You can get  +125   with BetVictor about the UEFA Champions League final featuring over three and a half goals and that option is headline material in light of the cited statistics.

Also, one thinks that bookmakers are underrating Liverpool’s chance of winning its sixth European Cup/UEFA Champions League title. Tottenham earned four points from its UEFA Champions League Group H games versus Real Madrid courtesy of a 3-1 home win following a 1-1 away draw. Tottenham is the English Premier League team closest in playing style to Liverpool and, while there are subtle differences in the way that Spurs and the Reds apply pressure to opponents, they are inconsequential in the grand scheme of things. Liverpool is equipped to make life difficult for Real Madrid because the Reds will allow the Meringues to stroke around the ball at their leisure so long as Jurgen Klopp is standing on the touchline gesticulating. Given one’s forecast of goals, it makes sense to back Liverpool to beat Real Madrid in normal time and both teams to score in that 90-minute period at odds of +360   with 888Sport.

Finally, backing Real Madrid right-back Daniel Carvajal to find his way into UEFA Champions League final referee Milorad Mazic’s notebook is another worthwhile wager at +170   with BetVictor.

Carvajal has been Real Madrid’s naughtiest player in both the Spanish Primera Division and the UEFA Champions League – 11 yellow cards from 25 games in the former and four yellow cards from seven matches in the latter – and he is likely to line up in one of the positions that Liverpool’s livewire attackers will look to exploit whenever they turnover the ball high up the pitch. Odds about Carvajal receiving at least a yellow card range from odds-on to odds against but he is entitled to be the favourite across both sides.

Tips Summary

Real Madrid v Liverpool – Over 3.5 goals
Saturday 26th May, 19:45 BST
Odds:  +125

Liverpool to win and both teams to score
Saturday 26th May, 19:45 BST
Odds:  +350

Daniel Carvajal to be shown a card
Saturday 26th May, 19:45 BST
Odds:  +170