Stoke is entitled to be odds on to post an English Premier League home win over Norwich on Wednesday so one rates the Potters as the best bet on the midweek card at +105 with many bookmakers, including Bet365 and BetVictor.
Five rungs and six points separate Stoke and Norwich on the English Premier League ladder after 20 rounds and one would argue that the Potters have improved as the competition as progressed, whereas the Canaries have not experienced such peaks and troughs. Odds of +105 imply that Stoke is only a little bit better than Norwich and that is an assessment with which one takes issue and not merely because of the English Premier League ladder. One’s English Premier League collateral form analysis suggests that Stoke is quite a lot better than Norwich and that those odds of +105 are too big.
Stoke and Norwich have played every other English Premier League team at least once and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Potters hold a 10-3-6 advantage over the Canaries, including a direct edge thanks to their 1-1 draw at Carrow Road in August. Some bookmakers are quoting Stoke at odds on and that is where one thinks that the Potters will end up before Wednesday’s English Premier League game gets under way – they should be trading at around -111 .
Aston Villa has not beaten an English Premier League side since defeating Bournemouth on the opening weekend of the season so it is somewhat surprising that the Villans are odds against to lose to Crystal Palace on Tuesday.
Crystal Palace is seventh on the English Premier League ladder – 13 rungs and 23 points ahead of Aston Villa. One thinks that bookmakers, particularly Marathonbet, are not affording sufficient respect to the Eagles and that odds of +155 about an away victory constitutes good value.
Aston Villa and Crystal Palace have met every other English Premier League team at least once and, according to one’s collateral form analysis, the Villans trail the Eagles 4-2-13, including having lost 1-2 at Selhurst Park in August. Aston Villa is coming off a bitterly disappointing 1-1 English FA Cup draw at fourth-tier Wycombe, whereas Crystal Palace won 2-1 at Southampton in the same event. Aston Villa has very little going for it and relegation is a forgone conclusion because the Villans are 11 points adrift of safety and, realistically, they may need to win 10 of their last 18 English Premier League matches to survive. Crystal Palace is in the hunt for a UEFA Europa League spot and, arguably, the Eagles are better suited to playing on the road than they are to performing on home soil.
Swansea was the victim of an English FA Cup upset when it lost 2-3 at fourth-tier Oxford but one cannot get away from the Swans at odds of -122 with Marathonbet to beat fellow English Premier League struggler Sunderland on Wednesday.
One’s English Premier League collateral form analysis says that, after Crystal Palace, Swansea enjoys the round’s best numbers. Swansea and Sunderland have run into every other English Premier League side at least once and the result of one’s collateral form analysis is that the Swans have a 12-2-5 lead over the Black Cats. Swansea drew 1-1 at Sunderland in August so that one is one of the 12 English Premier League collateral form lines that favours the Swans.
Betting is all about obtaining value and, while the English Premier League ladder suggests that there is very little to choose between Swansea and Sunderland – 17th versus 19th and a gap of only four points – one’s collateral form analysis says that the table may not be telling the whole truth. If one’s English Premier League collateral form analysis data is correct, Swansea ought to be closer to -200 than -122 .
The English Premier League wagers that almost made one’s midweek short list were Liverpool and Arsenal to draw on Wednesday and the game between Manchester City and Everton on the same day to go over two and a half goals.
Stoke to beat Norwich
13th January 19:45 GMT
Crystal Palace to beat Aston Villa
12th January 19:45 GMT
Swansea to beat Sunderland
13th January 19:45 GMT
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