Go Fishing for Anchovies on Sunday Morning

Malaga are a value bet in .Sunday's La Liga

Malaga are a value bet in .Sunday's La Liga

Malaga is the most inviting bet in the 33rd round of Spanish Primera Division matches because the Anchovies are well over their true odds to post a home win over Athletic on Sunday.

Sky Bet is listing Athletic as the favourite and one cannot accept that given one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form figures and the fact that the Lions will be backing up from visiting Sevilla in the UEFA Europa League last eight.

According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Malaga holds a 8-4-7 lead over Athletic, including earning a 0-0 draw in December’s reverse fixture. Malaga is 10 points below Athletic on the Spanish Primera Division ladder but the Anchovies have outperformed the Lions against most of the league’s top teams. Malaga has registered better Spanish Primera Division results versus Atletico Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid than Athletic, while the Anchovies enjoy a 7-3-0 collateral form edge over the Lions when one only counts games featuring the sides ranked above 12th.

One is not going to totally discount the Spanish Primera Division ladder – Athletic has outperformed Malaga against the league’s lesser lights – but one has no doubt that SkyBet is incorrect to quote odds of +175  about an Anchovies victory in the first of Sunday’s five matches. One thinks that Malaga should be trading at odds around the +130  mark, particularly with Athletic facing its second tough game in the Spanish region of Andalusia in the space of 63 hours.

Las Palmas has won six of its last seven Spanish Primera Division matches and Marathonbet is taking a risk offering odds of +101  about the Yellows extending their fine recent run with a home defeat of struggling Gijon on Saturday.

Eighteen Spanish Primera Division points out of a possible 21 have lifted Las Palmas to 10th position on the ladder, comfortably clear of the relegation zone in which Gijon finds itself with six rounds to go. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Las Palmas boasts a 12-1-6 advantage over Gijon. Las Palmas succumbed to a 1-3 loss at Gijon in December’s reverse Spanish Primera Division fixture but that game was 1-1 before the Yellows had Aythami Artiles sent off in the 71st minute. Also, Las Palmas has fared better than Gijon versus six of the top seven teams in the Spanish Primera Division.

Most bookmakers are quoting Las Palmas at odds on to consolidate its Spanish Primera Division top-half ranking with a victory over a Gijon side that is 0-1-8 away to teams placed higher than 12th, scoring just twice in those nine road matches.

Villarreal’s UEFA Europa League engagement at Sparta Praha on Thursday is sufficient for one to overlook the Yellow Submarine, leaving Real Madrid to round out one’s Spanish Primera Division portfolio. Real Madrid is available at odds of -303  with Paddy Power to win at Getafe on Saturday.

Only one Spanish Primera Division side has beaten Getafe by more than one goal in front of the supporters of the Deep Blues and that was Barcelona, which recorded a 2-0 away success. That is enough for resist backing Real Madrid at odds on to beat Getafe by two or more goals but the Meringues should be too good for their neighbours, especially given the boost that qualifying for the UEFA Champions League semi-finals on Tuesday would have provided them. According to one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis, Real Madrid holds a 16-1-1 lead over Getafe, data that speaks for itself.

Finally, here are one’s Spanish Primera Division collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 33’s 10 games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.

Levante 8*-3-8 versus Espanyol
Getafe 1-1-16* versus Real Madrid
Las Palmas 12-1-6* versus Gijon
Eibar 8-2-9* versus Sociedad
Celta 10*-4-5 versus Betis
Malaga 8*-4-7 versus Athletic
Sevilla 8*-5-6 versus Deportivo
Atletico 15*-0-4 versus Granada
Vallecano 3-2-14* versus Villarreal
Barcelona 15*-2-2 versus Valencia

Tips Summary

Malaga to beat Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 17th April, 11:00 GMT
Odds:  +175

Las Palmas to beat Gijon
Saturday 16th April, 17:15 GMT
Odds:  +101

Real Madrid to beat Getafe
Saturday 16th April, 15:00 GMT
Odds:  -303