Monchengladbach strikes one as the best bet on what is a decidedly tricky 26th round of German Bundesliga matches.
Free from UEFA competition commitments after bowing out of the UEFA Champions League at the end of the group stage, Monchengladbach are concentrating on the race to finish third in the German Bundesliga behind Bayern Munchen and Dortmund. UEFA Champions League spots are available to the German Bundesliga’s top four teams and Monchengladbach will host a Frankfurt side on Saturday that has not won any of its last seven games and that has a divisional away record of 2-3-7 – the second worst in the entire section.
Monchengladbach enjoys a 10-1-6 German Bundesliga collateral form edge over Frankfurt and that includes the Foals winning October’s reverse fixture 5-1, plus Eintracht’s single goal was a penalty kick. Monchengladbach has won nine of its last 11 German Bundesliga home games, with its slip ups being a 0-0 draw with Ingolstadt in which it finished with 10 men and a 1-3 loss to Dortmund. Frankfurt has not taken a point from any of its German Bundesliga away matches versus teams in the top 10 – Monchengladbach is ranked sixth currently.
Many bookmakers, including Betfred, Ladbrokes and Totesport, are offering odds of -167 about Monchengladbach proving that its 5-1 German Bundesliga win over Frankfurt five months ago was not a fluke. One rates Monchengladbach as representing the most attractive German Bundesliga punt this weekend.
Over three and a half goals is not one’s usual play but one is picking Bayern Munchen and Bremen to exceed that line on Saturday when they clash in the German Bundesliga.
There is a stark difference between the goals scored in German Bundesliga games featuring Bayern Munchen depending upon venue. Bayern Munchen’s German Bundesliga home matches are averaging 3.67 goals and 50 per cent of them have gone over three and a half goals, whereas its divisional away games are averaging 2.15 goals and 23.08% of them have exceeded the line. And Bremen’s German Bundesliga goals numbers support one’s selection as well. Eleven of Bremen’s 25 German Bundesliga matches have gone over three and a half goals, including nine of its 13 divisional away games.
William Hill is quoting odds of -110 about Bayern Munchen and Bremen combining for more than three and a half goals and that makes more appeal than the odds-against offers about both sides scoring because, such is the home team’s dominance of the German Bundesliga, it is more than capable of scoring enough goals to land one’s wager on its own.
It was tough to select another German Bundesliga option but one’s nod goes to Ingolstadt draw no bet versus Stuttgart, a wager that Marathonbet is offering at odds of +113 .
One’s nomination of Ingolstadt draw no bet for Saturday’s German Bundesliga match boils down to two things: one’s collateral form analysis supports the ladder and Stuttgart’s poor defensive numbers are not those of an away favourite.
Ingolstadt trails Stuttgart 7-2-8 on one’s German Bundesliga collateral form figures but the Schanzer hold a 4-0-2 lead if one only includes games featuring sides ranked in the top six in one’s calculations. Stuttgart has conceded a German Bundesliga-high 49 goals in the first 25 rounds, including a division-leading 28 goals in its dozen away matches.
Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 26’s nine games. The asterisk signifies the direct head-to-head winner.
Hertha 7-3-7* versus Schalke
Darmstadt 6*-2-9 versus Augsburg
Hannover 4*-2-11 versus Koln
Hoffenheim 5-1-11* versus Wolfsburg
Ingolstadt 7-2-8* versus Stuttgart
Moenchengladbach 10*-1-6 versus Frankfurt
Bayern Munchen 14*-2-1 versus Bremen
Leverkusen 10*-1-6 versus Hamburg
Dortmund 12*-1-4 versus Mainz
Monchengladbach to beat Frankfurt
Saturday 12th March, 14:30 GMT
Bayern Munich v Bremen Over 3.5 goals
Saturday 12th March, 17:30 GMT
Ingoldstadt Draw no Bet to beat Stuttgart
Saturday 12th March, 14:30 GMT
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