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Giallorossi to make it 10 home wins to nil

March 13, 2014

RomaBacking Roma to win Italian Serie A home games to nil has been a profitable ploy throughout the season and there is no reason to abandon the tactic for Monday’s match between the Giallorossi and the Bianconeri in Italy’s eternal city.

Roma is unbeaten in its 13 Italian Serie A home games, with 10 wins and three draws. Nine of Roma’s 10 Italian Serie A home victories have had the added bonus of a clean sheet, plus the Giallorossi have conceded only one goal in its latest five top-flight matches, irrespective of venue.

Udinese lost 0-1 to Roma in the ninth round of Italian Serie A games and that was in spite of having a man extra than the Giallorossi for the final quarter of the match following the red card of Maicon for two cautionable offences. Udinese has won only one of its last six Italian Serie A games so the Bianconeri are not in tremendous form and, therefore, it is hard to make a case for anything other than a Roma victory and an easy one at that. Paddy Power is offering odds of 2.30 about Roma winning to nil so that is one’s top pick.

One will be able to cut the atmosphere with a knife when Italian Serie A’s bottom two, Sassuolo and Catania, clash in Reggio Emilia. Sassuolo is 20th in Italian Serie A following a disastrous run in which it has accrued only four points from a possible 39, while Catania is 19th on the ladder after winning just one of its last nine matches. Sassuolo simply cannot afford to lose at home to its Italian Serie A relegation rival and a loss for Catania would send it to the bottom of the ladder with just 10 rounds remaining.

Sassuolo’s 27 Italian Serie A games have averaged 2.96 goals but that has been because the Neroverdi have been thrashed several times. Sassuolo has scored only 25 of those 80 goals and it has failed to score in four of its last five Italian Serie A matches. Catania is Italian Serie A’s lowest scorer with 20 goals in its 27 games, including just one goal in its last seven away matches and that came in the 89th minute when Atalanta was pretty much already celebrating victory.

Both 888sport and Unibet are offering odds of 1.68 that the Italian Serie A relegation six-pointer between Sassuolo and Catania goes under two and a half goals, while both teams not to score is available at odds of 2.10 with Paddy Power. Arguably the odds-against play is the pick of the options.

Finally, the Italian Serie A game between another couple of strugglers, Livorno and Bologna, looks likely to go under two and a half goals as well. Like Sassuolo, Livorno is high on the Italian Serie A goals-per-match chart, ranking fifth on 2.93 goals. However, that is because Livorno has copped quite a few hidings. Livorno should not be on receiving end of another beating from a Bologna side that is averaging less than one goal per Italian Serie A game.

Bologna beat Livorno 1-0 in the reverse Italian Serie A fixture five months ago. With some much at stake – defeat for Bologna would see it slip into the Italian Serie A relegation zone – one cannot imagine anything other than a match in which the Rossoblu play cautiously and Livorno has to make all the running. An early goal for Livorno would alter the complexion of the Italian Serie A blockbuster but the odds are against that and in favour of a hard slog.

Boylesports is offering odds of 1.67 that the Italian Serie A game between Livorno and Bologna goes under two and a half goals and that rounds out the suggested weekend punts.

About the author

Eric Roberts
Eric Roberts

Sports Journalist

Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.