One’s search for a long-priced winner takes us to Bet365’s corner-kicks markets again, this time for Saturday’s English League One match between Millwall and Colchester at The Den.
Three weeks ago, we were one corner kick shy of landing the huge odds of +550 about English League One rivals Coventry and Peterborough combining for more than 14 corners and it was gut wrenching. There were eight corners in the first half and, with 78 minutes elapsed, Bet365 was one corner away from paying out. Unfortunately, there were no corner kicks in the last 12 minutes plus stoppage time so one’s pick was a loser. Peterborough contributed just one corner kick to the count so the Posh are off one’s Christmas card list if people still send Christmas cards these days.
Three teams – Bradford, Millwall and Port Vale – have each taken 119 corner kicks in English League One games but only one of them – the Lions – have done so in 16 matches instead of 17. Millwall is averaging 7.44 corner kicks per English League One game to lead the for ladder, while the Lions are 13th on the against ladder with a 5.13 concession mean.
Thirteen of Millwall’s 16 English League One matches have gone over the regular corner-kicks line of 10 and a half, with none of its games featuring fewer than nine corners. With regards to Bet365’s exclusive line of 14 corner kicks, three of Millwall’s 16 English League One matches have gone over it, which equates to raw odds of approximately +433 .
Colchester is another English League One side that loves a corner kick. Colchester is ranked eighth in English League One for corner kicks taken, with the Us averaging exactly 6.00 corners per game. Colchester is ranked 15th in English League One for corner kicks conceded, with the Us giving up an average of 5.06 corners per match. Ten of Colchester’s 17 English League One games have gone over 10 and a half corner kicks, including five of its eight away matches. Three of Colchester’s 17 English League One games have gone over 14 corner kicks, which equates to raw odds of roughly +467 .
Bet365 is offering odds of +400 that Millwall and Colchester combine for more than 14 corner kicks in Saturday’s English League One match. On face value that does not appear to be overly generous – see one’s comments about odds of 5.33 and 5.67 – but one likes the idea of a speculative bet on two teams that have been kind to over-10-and-a-half-corner-kicks punters this term. Bet365 has recognised that Millwall and Colchester have the potential to go big on corner kicks on Saturday – usually it lists odds of around +550 about more than 14 corners – so one is not alone in one’s thinking.
There are other English League One statistics that support one’s selection, mostly to do with Colchester and the manner in which it approaches away games. Only English League One title favourite Walsall is averaging more attempts and more attempts on target than Colchester in away matches so one is confident that the Us will attack Millwall. Also, Colchester has English League One’s most porous defence, both away from home and overall – the Us are averaging 2.88 goals against on their travels and 2.18 goals against irrespective of venue. Millwall manager Neil Harris will be drumming into his players that Colchester’s defence is there for the taking so one expects the Lions to play positively.
Titanbet is offering odds of -118 that Saturday’s English League One game between Millwall and Colchester goes over 10 corner kicks. That looks like must-bet material based on all the statistics cited in one’s article, with Bet365’s odds of +400 about more than 14 corners there for adventurous punters who like to live their life on the edge.
Millwall v Colchester Over 14 corners
21st November 15:00 GMT
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