Fourth and Third to Combine for More Than Two Goals

Monchengladbach regularly feature in high-scoring Bundesliga games.

Monchengladbach regularly feature in high-scoring Bundesliga games.

Monchengladbach is the German Bundesliga’s king of over two and a half goals and Leverkusen has nothing for which to play so one is expecting a high-scoring game when fourth entertains third in the penultimate round of matches.

Twenty-four of Monchengladbach’s 32 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, including 13 of its 16 home matches – no other team can match those numbers. And Leverkusen is no slouch, either. Nineteen of Leverkusen’s 32 German Bundesliga games have gone over two and a half goals, including 10 of its 16 away matches. The German Bundesliga head-to-head record favours one’s pick as well because the reverse fixture in December featured a massive five goals.

Only Bayern Munchen and Dortmund have conceded fewer goals in the German Bundesliga than Leverkusen. But Leverkusen’s game is all about pressing and, if it does not bring its usual energy to what is a meaningless game for it, then numerous goals are likely to be on the agenda. Paddy Power is offering odds of -189  that the German Bundesliga match between Monchengladbach and Leverkusen goes over two and a half goals and, if it was not for the result of the reverse fixture – the former lost 0-5 at the latter – then one would have been tempted to select the Foals to take out the game.

Hertha is one of the three sides with which Monchengladbach is scrapping for the German Bundesliga’s fourth and final UEFA Champions League berth. Hertha’s form has nosedived recently, seeing the Berlin-based team go from a top-four certainty to fighting Mainz, Monchengladbach and Schalke for that prized position. Hertha, however, has had some excuses for collecting just one point from its last half a dozen German Bundesliga matches because it has run into each of the four sides above it on the ladder plus a Hannover team that was – at the time – playing for its top-flight life.

On Saturday it is Darmstadt’s turn to tackle Hertha in the German Bundesliga and, while the promoted team is in the thick of the relegation battle, one thinks that the cream will rise to the top. According to one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis, Hertha enjoys a 9-3-5 lead over Darmstadt and December’s reverse fixture resulted in a resounding 4-0 away victory for Pal Dardai’s side.

Marathonbet is quoting odds of -141  about Hertha getting its UEFA Champions League qualification push back on track and that strikes one as fair value. It is no fluke that Hertha is fifth on the German Bundesliga ladder and Darmstadt’s membership of the elite division is under threat largely because it is 1-4-9 against teams ranked in the top eight.

Dortmund has almost no hope of catching Bayern Munchen in the German Bundesliga title race but one expects BVB to keep their championship rivals honest by posting an away win at Frankfurt on Saturday. Dortmund boasts a 15-0-2 German Bundesliga collateral form advantage over Frankfurt, with December’s reverse fixture ending in a 4-1 BVB romp.

Several bookmakers, including BetfredLadbrokes and William Hill, are offering odds of -250  about Dortmund defeating Frankfurt in Saturday’s German Bundesliga game between outfits at opposite ends of the competition ladder.

Finally, here are one’s German Bundesliga collateral form analysis results for every one of Round 33’s nine matches. The asterisk signifies the head-to-head winner.

Frankfurt 2-0-15* versus Dortmund
Koln 10*-0-7 versus Bremen
Hamburg 5*-3-9 versus Wolfsburg
Hannover 4-2-11 versus Hoffenheim
Hertha 9*-3-5 versus Darmstadt
Ingolstadt 2-1-14* versus Bayern Munchen
Monchengladbach 8-1-8* versus Leverkusen
Schalke 7-2-8* versus Augsburg
Stuttgart 8*-0-9 versus Mainz

Tips Summary

Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen – Over 2.5 Goals
Saturday 7th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -189

Hertha Berlin to beat Darmstadt
Saturday 7th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -141

Borussia Dortmund to beat Frankfurt
Saturday 7th May, 14:30 GMT
Odds:  -250